住友金属矿业（5713.T）：预计由于电动汽车需求放缓，阴极材料/金属业务收益恶化；从买入下调至卖出

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Sumitomo Metal Mining from Buy to Sell [1][18]. Core Views - The report indicates a noticeable deterioration in margins for several of Sumitomo Metal Mining's products due to a global slowdown in Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) demand, leading to significant impairment losses in its nickel and cathode materials businesses [1][15]. - The target price has been reduced to ¥3,100 from ¥4,100, reflecting a projected 8% downside compared to the current share price [1][18]. - The report highlights a shift in technological trends in cathode materials, which may hinder Sumitomo Metal Mining's competitive edge in the market [1][15]. Financial Estimates - The FY3/26 pretax profit estimate has been cut by 30% to ¥97 billion, which is below both the company's guidance of ¥100 billion and the Bloomberg consensus of ¥105 billion [2]. - The mineral resources segment is expected to perform better than guidance, with an estimate of ¥103.4 billion, while the smelting and refining segment is projected to incur losses of ¥5.6 billion [2][12]. - The report anticipates a significant decline in total revenue growth, projecting a decrease of 6.6% for FY3/26, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [12][20]. Business Segment Performance - The report notes substantial impairment losses of ¥57.3 billion in the cathode materials business due to a transition from nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide (NCA) to nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide (NMC) technology [15][16]. - The mineral resources segment is expected to maintain a strong performance, while the materials segment is likely to remain in the red until a successful transition to mass production of NCM is achieved [16][20]. - The report emphasizes that the competitive landscape for NCM is challenging, particularly for Japanese manufacturers like Sumitomo Metal Mining [16][20]. Market Context - The report discusses the broader market context, noting that BEV demand is slowing, particularly in the US and Europe, which may impact the company's future performance [1][32]. - It highlights that the company's share price has underperformed significantly, declining 39% since April 2022, compared to a 47% increase in the TOPIX index [18][19]. - The report also mentions potential upside risks, including increased metal prices and a renewed acceleration in BEV demand, which could positively influence the company's performance [1][29][32].