石油评论：高盛顶级项目要点：2025 - 2026年供应强劲，后期供应趋紧

Investment Rating - The report supports a below-the-forwards Brent/WTI oil price forecast of $60/56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, with positive long-term implications for prices [10][11]. Core Insights - Strong supply growth from non-OPEC ex Russia and shale Top Projects is expected to accelerate to 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025-2026, primarily driven by Brazil and Guyana [11][14]. - The average breakeven price for oil has decreased by $3 per barrel to $59 per barrel, while cumulative peak production rose by 6% compared to the 2024 cost curve [6][17]. - A potential near-term surplus in 2025-2026 may lead to an earlier and lower peak for US shale production, indicating long-term shortages [27][29]. - The oil reserve life has decreased by 30% over the last five years, and oil capital expenditures (capex) are expected to decline further [31][29]. - Non-OPEC supply is projected to remain roughly flat in 2029-2030, providing an opportunity for OPEC to regain market share [33]. Summary by Sections Supply Growth - Annual production growth from non-OPEC ex Russia ex shale Top Projects is likely to reach 1 mb/d in 2025-2026, with Brazil and US deepwater projects leading the growth [6][11]. - The top-15 growing non-shale Top Projects are expected to contribute 1.2 mb/d to average supply growth during this period [14][11]. Price Forecast - The report indicates lower oil prices in 2025-2026 due to a near-term surplus, which may impact US shale production negatively [27][21]. - Long-term supply tightness is anticipated post-2028, supporting higher prices due to a lack of new projects and maturing US shale production [26][33]. Capital Expenditures and Breakeven Prices - The average breakeven price for oil projects has decreased, but remains higher than in previous years, particularly in Argentina and Russia [17][18]. - Total oil capex for non-shale Top Projects peaked in 2022 and is declining at an average annual rate of 10% [29][31].