720研究：美团、Varun Beverages、比亚迪、TDK、携程、三井不动产

Meituan - Investment Rating: Buy [1] - Core View: Meituan reported a solid profit beat in 1Q25, but faces challenges due to increased competition in food delivery, leading to elevated subsidies that will impact near-term profits [1] - Revenue Forecasts: 2Q core local commerce revenue growth is forecasted at +11% year-on-year, while profit is expected to decline by -35% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBIT: For FY25, adjusted EBIT is estimated at Rmb44.7 billion, a decrease of -15% year-on-year [1] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is lowered to HK$172 [1] Varun Beverages - Investment Rating: Initiate at Buy with a 12-month target price of Rs600 [2] - Market Position: Varun Beverages is positioned to grow in India's RTD beverages market, with Pepsi's market share increasing from 28% in 2015 to 38% in 2024 [2] - Profitability: The company has a strong track record of improving profitability in acquired territories, particularly in Africa [2] - Free Cash Flow: An inflection in free cash flow is expected over CY24-27 due to steady growth in operating cash flow and moderated capital expenditures [2] BYD - Investment Rating: Buy [4] - Promotion Impact: The impact of BYD's "618" promotion is expected to be less severe than feared, with an average price reduction of Rmb10,000 on 12 models [4] - Revenue Impact: The promotion is estimated to have a Rmb2.6 billion impact on BYD's top line, equivalent to 5% of 2025E net profit [4] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is adjusted down by 3% to Rmb424/HK$416 [4] WiseTech Global - Investment Rating: Buy [4] - Acquisition: WiseTech announced the acquisition of E2open for US$2.1 billion, which is expected to be accretive to FY27E EPS by +8% to 10% [4] - Growth Outlook: The acquisition is seen as a significant step towards WiseTech's goal of becoming the operating system for global trade and logistics [4] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is A$126 [4] Trip.com - Investment Rating: Buy [7] - Strategic Initiatives: Trip.com aims to enhance its position as a leading OTA in Asia through overseas investments and a full-funnel marketing strategy [7] - Customer Focus: The company emphasizes excellent customer service and innovation in tourism services [7] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is US$78/HK$608 [7] Mitsui Fudosan - Investment Rating: Buy [7] - Overseas Expansion: Mitsui Fudosan is looking to expand its overseas business and address rising construction costs [7] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is ¥1,500 [7] Toray Industries - Investment Rating: Buy [7] - Profit Growth: Toray expects strong profit growth supported by structural reforms and a focus on ROIC management [7] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is ¥1,030 [7]