澳洲电信集团（TLS.AX）：初步解读：‘互联未来30’战略发布；到2030财年实现超200亿澳元财务能力的低风险增长

Investment Rating - The report rates Telstra Group as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of A$4.90, indicating an upside potential of 3.6% from the current price of A$4.73 [8][9]. Core Insights - Telstra's "Connected Future 30" strategy aligns with expectations, focusing on mobile, digital infrastructure, and cost discipline, with a target of mid-single digit cash earnings CAGR to FY30 [1][2]. - The company aims for a 10% return on invested capital (ROIC) by FY30, which is above the current rate of approximately 8% [2]. - Telstra plans to sustain and grow fully-franked dividends into FY30, with a preference for buybacks over unfranked dividends [3][5]. - The company has over A$20 billion in financial capacity to fund growth by FY30, which includes A$15-16 billion in cash earnings and approximately A$6 billion in debt capacity [5][6]. Financial Targets - Cash earnings are expected to achieve a mid-single digit CAGR to FY30, with underlying income growth outpacing cash EBIT cost growth [2]. - The guidance for FY25 includes free cash flow expectations of A$3.0-3.4 billion and BAU capex guidance of A$3.2-3.4 billion [6]. - Telstra is positioned to become Australia's leading digital infrastructure provider, targeting sustained cash EBIT growth and mid-teens IRR on strategic investments [3][5]. Valuation and Market Position - The report suggests that while Telstra's headline valuation appears full compared to peers, adjusting for unique assets like NBN recurring payments reveals a more compelling multiple [7]. - The potential monetization of InfraCo Fixed assets could yield a value between A$22-33 billion, enhancing the company's financial position [7]. - The recurring NBN payment stream is estimated to be worth A$14.5 billion to A$17.9 billion, providing long-duration cash flows without strategic loss [7].