船运公司如何运用航运和船燃期货进行套期保值

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Shipping companies are affected by freight rate and fuel cost fluctuations. SCFIS(Europe) futures (EC) can manage freight rate volatility risks, and fuel oil futures (FU/LU) can hedge fuel cost fluctuations. The report constructs a hedging operation plan for container shipping futures from seven perspectives for enterprises' reference. Shipping companies can adopt different methods for cost management under different circumstances [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Background 3.1.1 Participants of EC - Shipping Enterprises: They play an upstream role in the container shipping industry chain, usually operating in alliances. They can short EC to secure income. For example, in 2025, Mediterranean Shg Co ranked first globally with a fleet of 6,591,391 TEU and a share of 20.50% [15][18]. - Freight Forwarders: They are an important link between upstream shipping companies and downstream cargo owners. China's freight forwarding enterprises are under the supervision of the Ministry of Commerce. They bear the dual - sided volatility of freight rates. In 2024, Sinotrans ranked first in global ocean freight forwarders with a cargo volume of 4,872,248 TEU [20][22]. - Cargo Owners: They are usually worried about the climb of spot freight and can hold long positions in the container shipping futures market to manage risks. Cargo owners interested in EC are mainly in six industries: automobile, chemical, furniture, paper, photovoltaic, and home appliance. For example, the Red Sea Crisis led to unavailable export container space and volatile freight rates eroding profits [26]. 3.1.2 Hedging Principles - Price Correlation: The essence of hedging is risk hedging, based on the principle that spot and futures prices fluctuate in the same direction, and opposite positions are established to mitigate risks. Innovative derivative tools like OTC options, freight rate ETFs, and "insurance + futures" can also be used for freight rate risk management. Due to short listing periods and various events, freight rates have shown wide fluctuations. The SCFIS Europe reflects actual departure freight rates, but there is a timing discrepancy between the basis and the reflection of the spot market [31][35]. - Basis Influence: BASIS = SPOT PRICE - FUTURES PRICE. The impact of basis changes on hedging results varies. For short hedging, a stable basis leads to a perfect hedge, a weakening basis results in a net loss, and a strengthening basis leads to a net profit. The opposite is true for long hedging [37][39]. 3.1.3 Freight and Fuel Oil price comparison There is a weak correlation between marine fuel oil prices and container shipping freight rates. Container shipping spot market freight rates are affected by seasonal and supply - chain factors, while fuel prices are influenced by international crude oil markets, geopolitics, and refining capacity. Whether shipping companies can pass on fuel cost increases to freight rate hikes depends on market competition [43]. 3.2 EC Hedging Scheme 3.2.1 Risk Exposure Container shipping companies face dual fluctuations in revenue and costs. Revenue is mainly determined by freight rates and is highly correlated with freight indices like CCFI, which can be hedged through EC. Costs are mostly fixed, but fuel oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on costs [49]. 3.2.2 Seven Steps - Different Risk Exposures and Demands: Upstream shipping enterprises worried about falling freight rates can open short positions; midstream freight forwarding enterprises bear dual risks and need balanced positions; downstream manufacturing and trading enterprises worried about rising freight rates can open long positions [58][59]. - Hedging Scale: Determine the actual risk exposure by considering long - term contracts and risk management ratios. Enterprises can conduct monthly rolling risk hedging based on actual monthly freight volume [64]. - Hedging Quantity: Divide the enterprise's monthly freight volume by the value of one futures contract on the disk to obtain the number of open positions. By mid - April 2025, one futures contract corresponded to approximately 9.1 TEUs or 5.86 FEUs [70]. - Hedging Contracts: Generally, prefer the main contract. If the forward contract has good liquidity and meets the psychological price, choose the contract close to the actual shipment time [74]. - Impact of Container Type: Enterprises mostly use a single container type of 40 - foot or 20 - foot. The freight rate ratio between them is long - term stable but may fluctuate due to supply - demand mismatches [78]. - Impact of Exchange Rates: Freight rates are settled in US dollars, and there is a certain negative correlation between exchange rates and freight rates. Exchange rates affect exports and indirectly influence trade demand and container freight rates. Overall, freight rates are mainly determined by their own supply and demand [83]. - Determine the Route: The correlation between SCFI Europe and major ocean routes exceeds 90%. The hedging scale can be converted according to the average ratio of SCFI Europe freight rates to those of other major international routes. Coastal port freight rate differences are minimal, allowing hedging for non - Shanghai port export routes [89]. 3.2.3 Hedging Cases A shipping company in February 2025 expected to undertake 100 TEUs of cargo in April. Worried about the decline in freight rates in the off - season, it conducted sell hedging. Although the spot market price fell, the futures hedge reduced the loss to less than 10,000 RMB [93]. 3.3 Fuel Oil Hedging Scheme 3.3.1 Buy Hedging - Basic Concepts: As fuel oil futures and spot prices have similar trends, fuel oil futures can be used for hedging. Good buy - hedging timing includes when the supply - demand relationship turns from weak to strong, industry profits are low, the basis is high, and market expectations improve. Shipping companies can use inventory management + spot - futures arbitrage and procurement agency to hedge raw material price increase risks [99]. - Strategic Path: Conduct cost risk management by order through futures instruments [103]. 3.3.2 Sell Hedging - Basic Concepts: Fuel oil futures contracts can be used for hedging. Shipping companies can achieve inventory management + spot - futures arbitrage and inventory hedging. Good sell - hedging timing includes when the supply - demand relationship turns from strong to weak, industry profits are high, the basis is low, and market expectations deteriorate [108]. - Cases: In January 2020, a shipping company conducted fuel oil selling hedging. Although the spot price declined, the futures hedge not only offset the spot losses but also generated additional gains due to the strengthening basis [113]. - Characteristics: Take orders as units to conduct cost risk management through futures, locking in order gross profit and processing profits within a controllable range [117]. 3.4 Comparison of Profit - to - Spot Fuel Price Ratio of Shipping Companies - The correlation between the profits of container shipping companies and the ratio of freight rates to fuel oil prices reaches 69.5%. Freight rates remain the main factor causing fluctuations in net profits. There is a certain correlation between freight rates and fuel oil prices, and shipping companies' net profit is highly correlated with both. Shipping companies can lock in profits to some extent by using futures tools [122][127]. 3.5 Futures Contracts - EC Futures Contracts: The contract multiplier is 50 Yuan per index point, with a minimum price fluctuation of 0.1 index points. It has specific trading hours, daily price limits, and settlement types [129]. - FU Futures Contracts: The contract size is 10 metric tons/lot, with a minimum price fluctuation of 1 Yuan/metric ton. It has physical delivery and specific trading and delivery periods [132]. - LU Futures Contracts: Similar to FU, with a contract size of 10 metric tons/lot, specific trading and delivery months, and physical delivery [133].