快手-W：内联1Q25结果；人工智能货币化-20250528

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HK$80.00, indicating a potential upside of 64.1$48.75 [3][20]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's 1Q25 results were in line with expectations, showing a total revenue increase of 11% YoY to RMB32.6 billion and an adjusted net profit rise of 4% YoY to RMB4.6 billion [1][2]. - The monetization of Kling AI is accelerating, generating over RMB150 million in 1Q25, and is expected to exceed RMB700 million in FY25E [1][8]. - Revenue growth is forecasted to continue, with an expected 12% YoY increase in total revenue for 2Q25E, driven by online marketing and e-commerce [1][8]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, total revenue is projected at RMB141.85 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB20.12 billion [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit margin is anticipated to remain stable at around 14.2% for FY25E [9][18]. - The company is investing heavily in AI, with R&D expenses growing by 16% YoY to RMB3.3 billion in 1Q25, representing 10.1% of total revenue [8][18]. Revenue Breakdown - In 1Q25, online marketing revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB18.0 billion, accounting for 55% of total revenue [8]. - Other services revenue grew by 15% YoY to RMB4.8 billion, while live streaming revenue rose by 14% YoY to RMB9.8 billion [8][11]. - E-commerce GMV increased by 15% YoY to RMB332.3 billion, supported by growth in both monthly paying users and GMV per user [8]. Valuation Metrics - Kuaishou is currently trading at a non-IFRS PE of 10x for FY25E, which is attractive compared to the sector average of 16x and its 2-year historical average of 15x [1][3]. - The SOTP-derived target price of HK$80.00 is based on valuations of its live streaming, online marketing, and e-commerce businesses, with respective contributions of HK$9.7, HK$23.4, and HK$39.7 per share [12][13][15].