Guosen International·2025-05-28 08:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Views - Meituan's long-term ecological investment priority is emphasized over short-term profit performance, with a 1% and 13% beat on revenue and adjusted profit expectations respectively for Q1 [1][2] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - Active user and merchant numbers reached new highs, indicating strong growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly exceeding expectations [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - The core local business showed robust growth with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% respectively [3] - The food delivery segment saw an increase in user order frequency, particularly among high-frequency users, with daily order volume growth estimated at around 10% [3] - Instant retail competition is being addressed with a planned investment of 100 billion yuan over the next three years to enhance supply chain and merchant digital transformation [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - For Q2, total revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with core local business and new business revenues projected to increase by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - The full-year revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to a 15% year-on-year increase, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 177 HKD, representing a 34% upside potential from the recent closing price [4][6]