申通快递（002468）：公司补齐产能短板，市占率稳步提升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [6][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic express delivery industry and has entered a rapid growth phase since implementing a "three-year 10 billion capacity enhancement plan" in 2022. The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate into 2025, supported by a recent stock incentive plan that boosts internal confidence in development [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company's stock price as of May 27, 2025, is 10.34 RMB, with a target price set at 12.6 RMB. The market capitalization is approximately 154.28 billion RMB, and the company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.61 [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.353 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30.15%. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.88 RMB, reflecting a 28.14% increase [8][9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has increased its daily capacity to over 75 million parcels by the end of 2024, with a target of 90 million parcels for 2025. The parcel volume has grown from 11.1 billion in 2021 to 22.7 billion in 2024, with market share rising from 10.2% to 13.0% during the same period. In the first four months of 2025, the company completed 7.9 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, outperforming the industry average by 4.2 percentage points [9]. Incentive Plans - The company has introduced a stock incentive plan, granting 28.136 million restricted shares to 239 employees, which is about 1.84% of the total share capital. The performance targets for revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 are set at no less than 12%, 25.4%, and 38%, respectively [9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.4 billion RMB in 2025, 1.6 billion RMB in 2026, and 1.9 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 20%, and 15%. The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 12, 10, and 8 times, respectively [9].