STO(SZ:002468) CSC SECURITIES (HK) LTD·2025-05-28 08:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [6][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic express delivery industry and has entered a rapid growth phase since implementing a "three-year 10 billion capacity enhancement plan" in 2022. The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate into 2025, supported by a recent stock incentive plan that boosts internal confidence in development [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the express delivery sector, with 98.9% of its revenue coming from this service. As of May 27, 2025, the stock price was 10.34 RMB, with a target price set at 12.6 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.353 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.15%. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.88 RMB, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.69 [8][9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has seen its market share increase from 10.2% in 2021 to 13.0% in 2024. In the first four months of 2025, the company completed 7.9 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, outperforming the industry average by 4.2 percentage points [9]. Capacity Expansion - The company has invested over 30 billion RMB annually in enhancing its capacity through new transfer centers and automation equipment. By the end of 2024, the company's daily capacity is expected to exceed 75 million parcels, with a target of 90 million parcels for 2025 [9]. Stock Incentive Plan - A recent stock incentive plan aims to grant 28.136 million restricted shares, representing 1.84% of the total share capital. This plan is designed to retain key talent and reflects the company's confidence in its growth trajectory [9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.4 billion RMB in 2025, 1.6 billion RMB in 2026, and 1.9 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.9 RMB, 1.1 RMB, and 1.2 RMB respectively. The projected P/E ratios for these years are 12, 10, and 8 times [9].