LEAD INTELLIGENT(SZ:300450) Soochow Securities·2025-05-28 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has fully recognized impairment losses totaling 2.8 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, which includes 1.3 billion yuan for credit impairment and 1.5 billion yuan for inventory write-downs, indicating that the risk is well-managed [3] - The company is expected to see a recovery in cash flow as downstream production resumes, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow noted in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [3] - The company is projected to benefit from increased overseas revenue, enhancing its overall profitability and operational performance [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to be 16.628 billion yuan in 2023, with a decline of 28.71% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 13.2 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 20.1 billion yuan by 2027 [1][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop to 286.1 million yuan in 2024, but rebound to 1.057 billion yuan in 2025, reaching 2.228 billion yuan by 2027 [1][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.18 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.42 yuan by 2027 [1][10] Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion - The company has seen a significant increase in transactions with its strategic partner, Ningde, with Q1 2025 transactions reaching 2.1 billion yuan, expected to total 8.5 billion yuan for the year [3] - The company is poised to benefit from Ningde's IPO proceeds, which will primarily fund capacity expansion in Hungary, enhancing the company's market position in Europe [3] - The company is expanding its overseas customer base, with high-margin orders from major automotive manufacturers in Europe and North America, which are expected to improve cash flow and profitability [3]