Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-28 09:00Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is generally stable currently, but the supply - side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads. The expectation of new capacity launch is increasing, and most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, with production enthusiasm frustrated and some even suspending the delivery product production line [3]. - The demand side is relatively weak. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down, the price and production schedule of N - type silicon wafers have declined, and battery manufacturers also have production reduction plans. After the "rush - to - install" boom in the terminal market, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong and the procurement enthusiasm is low [3]. - Starting from June 1st, newly installed photovoltaics need to enter the electricity spot market, which reduces the rate of return and suppresses demand. The demand is expected to enter a vacuum period in the third quarter. The unstable macro - economic environment and international trade frictions also lead to uncertainty in overseas photovoltaic market demand, further inhibiting the growth of polysilicon demand [3]. - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The polysilicon purchased by silicon wafer enterprises previously has not been fully digested, which suppresses the market price. The short - term operation suggestion is to consider short - term long positions, while the medium - and long - term strategy is mainly short [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of polysilicon is 35,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan compared with the previous period; the main contract position is 79,868 lots, a decrease of 932 lots [3]. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 month contracts of polysilicon is 2,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [3]. - The basis of polysilicon is 1,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 405 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.29 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 7,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons [3]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 582,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons [3]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W [3]. - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 units, a decrease of 11,583,800 units; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 units, an increase of 10,274,320 units; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/unit, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/unit [3]. - The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.29, a decrease of 0.62 [3]. Industry News - As of May 27th, the mainstream market price of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material is 31 yuan/kg, N - type dense material is 35 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material is 37.5 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon is 35 yuan/kg, and N - type polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, all of which are stable [3].