上半年反套结构的确立，下半年交易维度的增加

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for the egg industry [5] Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the egg market featured gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. The trading focus will shift towards demand. After short - term operations based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Recent Situation: Tortuous Decline - In H1 2025, the egg market showed a trend of gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. From January to May, the monthly average price in the main production areas dropped from 4.22 yuan/jin to around 3.30 yuan/jin. The price decline was driven by a high inventory base, and holiday - related demand fluctuations affected the spot and futures markets. Recently, the egg futures market has been weak [8] Shift of Trading Focus - The bearish view on the June and July egg contracts is due to the surplus supply, with a high inventory base and a slow - paced culling process in the breeding sector. As of April 2025, the in - production laying hen inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The trading focus will gradually shift to demand. Egg prices have typical seasonal characteristics, usually entering a decline in June and starting to rebound in July, reaching a high in September and slightly falling after the National Day holiday [11][17] Investment Advice - The egg breeding cycle is short. In the short - to - medium term, the market is constrained by high in - production inventory and lackluster demand, so the spot price will remain weak. The view that the second quarter has the greatest supply surplus pressure this year has been verified. In the third quarter, there are more trading factors to consider. After short - selling based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts. It is recommended to shift from near - far month reverse spreads and short positions in near - month contracts to long positions in peak - season contracts and wait patiently for low - price entry opportunities [25][26]