光大期货软商品日报-20250528

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [1] - Sugar: Slightly Bearish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton prices decreased slightly due to weak overall drivers and macro - level disturbances. The U.S. dollar index rebounded, and future attention should be paid to the weather in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices weakened. New cotton is growing normally and is expected to have a good harvest, with low - level but non - short - term - shortage concerns for old cotton inventory. Demand is relatively stable, and textile enterprise inventories increased slightly. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the current range, and future attention should be paid to international situations, domestic policies, and weather [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of May decreased by 23.15% year - on - year. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly, and the raw sugar price tested the support at 17 cents/pound. Domestic spot trading was average, with concerns about future imports. However, due to good domestic sales progress, the basis was strong, supporting the futures price. The sugar price is expected to slowly decline, and future sales progress and imports should be monitored [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.8% to 65.58 cents/pound, and CF509 fell 0.37% to 13,330 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 10,377 hands to 565,100 hands. Xinjiang's cotton arrival price was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,595 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 1572,300 tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of May, a 23.15% decrease year - on - year. The average daily export was 98,200 tons. Guangxi's sugar - making group quoted 6100 - 6190 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's group quoted 5890 - 5930 yuan/ton, also with some prices down 10 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 spread was - 215, unchanged; the main - contract basis was 1265, up 44. Xinjiang's spot price was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton, and the national price was 14,595 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 spread was 89, up 1; the main - contract basis was 319, down 6. Nanning's spot price was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged, and Liuzhou's was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On May 27, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 11,260, down 83, with 348 valid forecasts. Cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,485 yuan/ton, Henan 14,651 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,600 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,817 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.3, unchanged; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.6, down 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.9, up 0.1 [3]. - Sugar: On May 27, Nanning's sugar spot price was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged, and Liuzhou's was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 31,881, down 363, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, spreads, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][13][16]