农产品日报（2025 年5 月28日）-20250528

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating upwards [1] - Edible Oils: Oscillating downwards [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Views - Corn: On Tuesday, the main 2507 contract of corn reduced positions and adjusted. The futures price fluctuated during the session and rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a small positive line. Northeast corn prices were basically stable, while North China prices were strong last weekend and slowed down on Tuesday. The arrival volume was small, and there was still an intention to ship before the wheat harvest. Sales areas were stable, and ports were temporarily stable. Technically, the July contract was suppressed by the long - term moving average. Under the pressure of wheat substitution and new wheat listing, it is expected that the corn futures and spot quotes will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose. An agricultural consulting agency raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production by 800,000 tons to 172 million tons. Brazil's May soybean exports were 14.03 million tons. The post - market crop report showed that the U.S. soybean planting rate was 76%. Domestically, rapeseed meal increased positions and rose, and soybean meal followed. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal pick - up volume increased, the demand for the two meals was good, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal was less than expected, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal was postponed to mid - June, and the granular meal inventory may gradually decline. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. - Edible Oils: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly closed higher. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.73% month - on - month. The slowdown in production growth and the improvement in export growth helped to digest inventory pressure. China and Malaysia signed an agreement, and the EU delegation will visit Malaysia in September and October. Crude oil prices were almost flat. Domestically, rapeseed oil increased positions and rose, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated and adjusted. The import profit of palm oil was inverted, and the expected purchase volume decreased. The market is concerned about rapeseed purchases after June and soybean purchases for September shipments and later. The state - reserve rapeseed oil has two - way sales. Edible oils oscillate, with a bearish mindset before the festival [1]. - Eggs: On Tuesday, egg futures fell. The main 2507 contract continued to decline, and the 2509 contract broke through the oscillation range downward. The spot price increased slightly. Fundamentally, the new supply will continue to increase before August. The long - term plum rain in the Yangtze River Delta is expected to have a greater negative impact on egg prices than in previous years. Before the over - expected increase in culling, a weak expectation for egg prices is maintained [1][2]. - Live Pigs: On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs oscillated and adjusted. At the beginning of the week, the futures price rose driven by the near - month contract. The spot price rose on the weekend, which boosted the futures price. The current demand is stable, but the previous low price triggered resistance to price drops, and the supply of leading enterprises decreased slightly, with a small price rebound. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within the range in the near future. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 13,500 yuan integer mark. The spot price in May was stronger than expected, and it is generally expected that the price will decline under the pressure of increased supply in June [2]. Group 3: Market Information - CGC will organize a two - way bidding session for rapeseed oil on May 30, with 18,263 tons for two - way trading [3] - Indian farmers and industry officials said that India's soybean planting area may decrease this year as corn and sugarcane may replace soybeans in some areas [3] - According to market rumors, the state - reserve soybean auction will not be held before June 15, and it is rumored that the local state - reserve in Heilongjiang will auction about 2 million tons next month [3] - As of May 23, the commercial inventory of the three major edible oils was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [3] - From May 20 - 27, the total trading volume of soybean meal showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the total trading volume on May 27 being 86,900 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: Include the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][8][9][13] - Contract Basis: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][21][27] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Products Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams of DCE, with multiple awards and media experiences [31] - Hou Xueling, Soybean Analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience, and her team has won multiple awards [31] - Kong Hailan, Researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with her team winning multiple awards and media interviews [31]