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瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250528

Report Information - Report Title: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-05-28 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The RU2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,400 in the short term, and the NR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,700 in the short term [2][3] - Last week, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port reduced inventory, while the general trade warehouses increased inventory, resulting in a slight overall inventory increase. Overseas arrivals continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in bonded warehouse inbound volume. After the decline in rubber prices, most tire enterprises made sporadic purchases based on rigid demand, but the overall volume was relatively limited [2] - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to increase last week. Most enterprises' production schedules gradually stabilized, but some enterprises slightly reduced production to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization rate. A few enterprises plan to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 690 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 775 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - rubber was 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was 1,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 191,713 lots, an increase of 22,484 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract was 57,246 lots, a decrease of 7,031 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,899 lots, an increase of 2,266 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 4,103 lots, a decrease of 1,175 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 199,080 tons, a decrease of 130 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 20,261 tons, a decrease of 10,483 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 245 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 549 yuan/ton, an increase of 714 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 68.9 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.61 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.18 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 52.1 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.7 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 112 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 42.86 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 47 days, an increase of 1.22 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.43%, an increase of 6.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.11%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.27%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.28%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 25 - May 31, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in Laos and Vietnam was above the medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, most areas had below - medium rainfall, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous period, with a growth rate of 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 90,500 tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 524,100 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points [2] - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [2]