黄金隐含“秩序重构”指数：捕捉全球秩序重构的交易信号

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Traditional pricing models for gold have lost effectiveness, with actual interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations failing to explain gold price movements from 2022 to 2025[2] - The GIORI index has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating market expectations of a global order reconstruction that surpass traditional cyclical views[5] - Gold prices have surged over 100% from $1,500 per ounce in early 2020 to over $3,000 by 2025, challenging market expectations and traditional financial models[12] Group 2: Drivers of Global Order Reconstruction - Central banks' gold purchases reached a 50-year high, with net purchases of 1,080 tons in 2022, 1,051 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024, significantly exceeding the average of 500 tons per year in the 2010s[3] - Geopolitical risks have escalated, with conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict driving up gold prices as a safe-haven asset[3] - The pressure on the US dollar system is increasing, with the federal deficit projected to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt and prompting a shift towards gold[3] Group 3: GIORI Index Insights - The GIORI index quantifies the unexplained volatility in gold prices, reflecting market expectations of non-traditional risks related to monetary diversification and geopolitical tensions[4] - Historical peaks of the GIORI index occurred during significant geopolitical events, such as the late 1970s and the 2010-2011 financial crisis, indicating a correlation with global market skepticism towards the dollar[5] - The GIORI index shows a strong correlation with the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) during specific periods, highlighting its relevance in assessing geopolitical risks[5]