Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-28 10:10Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3]. - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the current scale of resumption of production is not obvious. Some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, which drives the increase in supply. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week, but the large amount of maintenance capacity in June may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2456 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton; the futures trading volume is 341,091 lots, with a decrease of 146,848 lots; the futures position is 198,892 lots, with an increase of 1239 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 13,473 lots, with an increase of 7506 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January contract is 2363 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. - The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged; the price of steam coal is 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the resumption of production scale is not obvious; some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some devices in North and East China are planned to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. There will be more maintenance capacity in June, which may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. - The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.59% week - on - week to 400,900 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3]. - In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3].