Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-28 10:10Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 6,972 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the industry supply pressure is not significant, but in the medium - to - long - term, there is an expectation of increased supply. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly as the downstream enters the off - season. The plastics fundamentals are weak, but due to the 09 contract's discounted price on the disk and low price level, a cautious bearish view is taken. Attention should be paid to the support around 6,930 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts decreased, with the main contract closing at 6,972 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 18,981 lots to 341,402 lots, while the open interest increased by 4,902 lots to 532,123 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 625 lots to - 86,096 lots [2] Spot Market - The average prices of LLDPE (7042) in North and East China decreased, with the North China average at 7,144.35 yuan/ton, down 63.04 yuan/ton, and the East China average at 7,345.85 yuan/ton, down 62.68 yuan/ton. The basis was 172.35 yuan/ton, down 28.04 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore increased by 0.19 dollars/barrel to 61.3 dollars/barrel, and the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan increased by 0.87 dollars/ton to 567 dollars/ton. The ethylene CFR prices in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate decreased by 1.57 percentage points to 77.95% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of PE in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film showed different trends. The packaging film operating rate increased by 0.49 percentage points to 49.19%, the pipe operating rate decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 32%, and the agricultural film operating rate decreased by 2.63 percentage points to 14.05% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene increased by 0.06 percentage points to 14.81%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 18.65%. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options increased [2] Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, China's polyethylene production decreased by 1.98% to 598,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.43 percentage points to 77.95%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.13% [2] Inventory - As of May 28th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased by 3.29% to 482,000 tons, and as of May 23rd, the social sample warehouse inventory increased by 0.52% to 613,800 tons [2]