Guoyuan Securities2·2025-05-28 10:45Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 3.9 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 3.2 [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's total electricity sales volume for the first four months of 2025 increased by 0.33% year-on-year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation, while hydropower saw a decline due to seasonal factors [7][8]. - The integration of hydropower assets is progressing smoothly, with the company expected to hold a 55.13% stake in Yuanda Environmental Protection post-restructuring, enhancing asset value and ensuring long-term control [3][8]. - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50%, with a projected dynamic dividend yield of approximately 6% for 2025, reflecting a strong focus on shareholder returns [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 44,262 million, with projections of RMB 54,213 million for FY2024 and RMB 55,346 million for FY2025, indicating a growth rate of 1.3% in FY2023 and 22.5% in FY2024 [6][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 2,660 million in FY2023 to RMB 4,338 million in FY2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28.9% [6][16]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 0.22 in FY2023 to RMB 0.35 in FY2025, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings ratio from 13.6 to 8.4 [6][16]. Asset Management - The restructuring plan includes a significant increase in the company's stake in hydropower assets, with the National Power Investment Corporation planning to complete the integration of additional hydropower assets within three years [3][8]. - The transaction's price-to-book ratio is estimated at 1.87, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 20 for 2024, indicating favorable valuation metrics [3][8]. Dividend Policy - The company has a history of generous dividend payouts, achieving a payout ratio of 60% in 2024 and committing to maintain a minimum payout ratio of 50% in the future [4][9]. - The recent increase in shareholding by major stakeholders further underscores the long-term investment value of the company [4][9].