冠通期货：PVC策略：震荡下行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock downward" rating for the PVC industry, suggesting a strategy of "selling high" [1]. 2. Core View - The PVC market is under pressure due to factors such as a decline in upstream calcium carbide prices, a decrease in PVC operating rates, weak downstream demand, export - related policies, and high inventory levels. With the digestion of macro - sentiment and an increase in downstream wait - and - see attitudes, PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is to sell high. Upstream calcium carbide prices in the mainstream areas dropped by 25 - 50 yuan/ton and then stabilized. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the May Day holiday, downstream PVC operating rates recovered but were still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. Indian anti - dumping policies and the upcoming rainy season in India are unfavorable for PVC exports. Social inventory continued to decline last week but remained high. Real estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to April but was still negative year - on - year, and the decline in new construction and completion areas was significant. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces significant pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PVC2509 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a low of 4743 yuan/ton, a high of 4798 yuan/ton, and a final close of 4758 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, a decline of 1.02%. The open interest increased by 24,833 lots to 1,043,359 lots [2]. - Basis: On May 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2509 contract was 4758 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 108 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Yihua and other plants were shut down for maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, in 2024, Zhejiang Zhengyang's 300,000 - ton/year production capacity was fully put into production in April, Shaanxi Jintai's 600,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in two phases (300,000 tons/year in June and the remaining 300,000 tons/year in September), and Xinpu Chemical's 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in late December. Another 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in February 2025. Attention should be paid to the progress of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 - ton/year production capacity expected to be put into production around June - July 2025 [4]. - Demand: Real estate data showed slight improvement but was still negative year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The sales area of commercial housing was 282.62 million square meters, a decrease of 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 270.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8% year - on - year, and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week of May 25, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% week - on - week but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on commercial housing sales needs to be observed [1][5]. - Inventory: As of the week of May 22, PVC social inventory decreased by 2.84% week - on - week to 623,300 tons, 29.49% lower than the same period last year. Although the inventory continued to decline, it remained high [6].