日债利率为何大幅上行？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Japanese government bonds, especially long - term bonds, have seen a rapid rise in yields recently, putting pressure on investors. The market is highly concerned about whether the Ministry of Finance and the central bank will take actions such as reducing issuance and slowing QT to ease the supply - demand contradiction in the Japanese bond market. The sharp rise in Japanese bond yields is due to multiple structural contradictions [3][7][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Current Situation of Japanese Bond Market - As of May 24, 2025, the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to 1.57%, up about 45bp from the beginning of the year; the yield of 20 - year bonds rose to 2.52%, up about 63bp from the beginning of the year, reaching a nearly 20 - year high; the yield of 30 - year bonds reached a historical peak of 2.93%, up about 44bp since April and about 68bp from the beginning of the year. Long - term bond investors are under pressure [3][7] - The auction result of 40 - year bonds was announced. The market participation was close to the lowest level, with a bid - to - cover ratio of only 2.21 times and an interest rate of 3.135%, higher than the previous 2.71% in March. But the result was better than the recent pessimistic market expectations [3][7] Market Expectations for Future Actions - Speculation is rising that the Ministry of Finance and the central bank may take actions. The Ministry of Finance sent a questionnaire to market participants on the 26th, and the next central bank policy meeting will be held on June 16. The market is highly concerned about whether they will reduce issuance and slow QT [3][8] Reasons for the Rise in Japanese Bond Yields - The linkage between the primary and secondary markets: The poor performance of the new 20 - year Japanese government bond auction on May 20 (bid - to - cover ratio of only 2.5 times, the lowest since 2012, and a tail spread of 1.14, the highest since 1987) led to a 13bp increase in the 20 - year bond interest rate on that day. The 30 - year bond auction on the 13th also had a general market demand [3][9] - Weakening demand for Japanese government bonds: The Bank of Japan announced quantitative tightening in July 2024, planning to reduce the bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen per quarter until reducing the monthly purchase amount from about 6 trillion yen in July 2024 to about 3 trillion yen in the first quarter of 2026. Major life insurance companies plan to reduce their holdings of Japanese government bonds by a total of 1.3 trillion yen in the 2025 fiscal year [3][10] - Long - term interest rate hike expectations: In April 2025, Japan's CPI rose 3.6% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 3.5% year - on - year, exceeding the central bank's 2% target. The tight labor market and wage increase expectations strengthen long - term inflation expectations. Deputy Governor Uchida said that if the economy and prices improve as expected, interest rates may continue to rise [3][11] - Fiscal concerns due to debt: Japan's debt/GDP has exceeded 250%, and the debt principal and interest payments in 2025 account for about 24% of the fiscal budget. The approaching Senate election and the opposition's call for a consumption tax cut may lead to concerns about fiscal discipline and a decline in long - term bond demand [3][14]