Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core partner of Huawei, benefiting from the dual drivers of HarmonyOS and AI for performance recovery. Huawei accounted for 41% of the company's revenue in 2024, anchoring its business in the Harmony ecosystem and AI computing operations [5][8] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 onwards, driven by the commercial launch of HarmonyOS PCs and the maturation of AI computing networks [5][8] Summary by Sections 1. Huawei Chain Core Positioning and Business Diversification - The company has established a deep partnership with Huawei, which is its largest customer, contributing approximately 41% of its revenue in 2024 [19] - The business structure is clear, with the Technology Professional Group (TPG) dominating revenue, accounting for 87% in 2024 [28] - The company is expected to recover from a revenue low in 2023, with a projected revenue of 169.5 billion RMB in 2024, showing a significant improvement from a -14% decline in 2023 [29] 2. Innovation in Trustworthy Computing: Huawei as a Pioneer - The HarmonyOS has undergone significant evolution, with the release of the fully autonomous version expected in October 2024, marking a key milestone in the ecosystem's development [39] - The company has contributed over 485 million lines of code to the open-source HarmonyOS, positioning itself as a leading player in the ecosystem [62] 3. AI: Dual Drivers of Computing Operations and Agent Implementation - The company is positioned as a "computing operator + agent implementer," operating multiple AI computing centers to enhance utilization rates [5][8] - The AI business is expected to become a new growth engine, with projected revenue from AI-related value-added services anticipated to increase significantly by 2025 [5][8] 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 178 billion, 194.6 billion, and 221.4 billion RMB, with net profits of 6.1 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.9 billion RMB respectively [6][8] - The report employs a relative valuation method, comparing the company to peers in the Huawei chain, with an average PE of 50x for 2025E, applying a 56% discount for its Hong Kong listing, resulting in a target market value of 170 billion RMB [8]
中国软件国际（00354）：华为系列深度之十九：华为新阶段，鸿蒙+AI双驱动