原油等待OPEC会议驱动；芳烃确认破位有效，聚烯烃偏弱不改，能化弱势依旧

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Crude oil is waiting for the OPEC meeting to drive the market, while aromatics have confirmed a breakdown, and polyolefins continue to be weak. Most varieties in the sector are rated as bearish in both the medium and short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks this week due to issues like US and Japanese bond auctions and a rising VIX index. OPEC+ is expected to accelerate production increase in the medium - term, and short - term US refined oil inventories are rising. There is a possibility of new Iran nuclear deal [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Closed down more than 1% today, with short - term pressure at 461 [2]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Low inventory, but high - profit led to early resumption of previously shut - down plants, increasing supply. Pure benzene faces arrival pressure, and downstream demand is hard to improve [5]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, new low with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7195 [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7195 [5]. (3) PX - Logic: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates. Downstream PTA's operating rate is rising, and PX is in a de - stocking phase. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil [9]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 6775 [9]. - Strategy: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 6720 [9]. (4) PTA - Logic: PTA plant operating rates are rising, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Downstream polyester operating rates are firm. However, the cost factor may dominate after crude oil decline [13]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 4800 [13]. - Strategy: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 4750 [13]. (5) PP - Logic: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. Export profits are rising, but short - term exports are hard to increase [16]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, oscillated today. Short - term pressure at the high point on May 26 [16]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 6980 [16]. (6) Methanol - Logic: Domestic operating rates decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates increased, with high import expectations in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and it is under pressure [17]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure, continued to decline today. Short - term pressure at 2255 [17]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at the high point on May 22 [17]. (7) Rubber - Logic: Terminal automobile and tire inventories are at high levels, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, and domestic inventories are accumulating against the season [19]. - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the oscillation range with new low and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 14550 [19]. - Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound fails to break through the pressure in the hourly cycle [19]. (8) PVC - Logic: April real - estate data is still poor, and downstream demand is hard to improve. Plant maintenance is gradually ending, and supply is expected to increase [22]. - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4980 [22]. - Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities with reversal patterns in the hourly cycle [22]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply - side operating rates decreased slightly, but arrivals increased. Downstream polyester load remains high [23]. - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the short - term support at 4315 with a long - negative line and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4405 [23]. - Strategy: Transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 4405 [23]. (10) Plastic - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7120 [25]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7120 [25]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, increasing butadiene supply. Butadiene storage capacity is low, and price may fall after inventory accumulation. Terminal demand is weak [27]. - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Long - negative line with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 11580 [27]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 11580 [27].