国投期货软商品日报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicates a bullish drive but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (suggests a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (shows a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ (indicates a bullish drive but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (shows a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - The market conditions of different soft commodities vary, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and international market trends. The overall market presents a complex situation, and for most commodities, the current recommended operation is to wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, with general trading of domestic cotton spot and firm mainstream basis. The trading volume of pure - cotton yarn decreased, and the inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly. In April 2025, domestic cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative imports were 866,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. As of May 15, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a decrease of 318,600 tons from the end of April. If Sino - US negotiations continue to improve, the expectation of tight inventory at the end of the season will increase. It is recommended to wait and see or try the bull - spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In May, rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased, which was conducive to sugarcane acquisition, and the output of sugarcane and sugar was expected to rise significantly. Most international consulting firms expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season to remain high. Zhengzhou sugar also oscillated. Due to the continuous decline of US sugar, the profit of sugar imports increased, and the import volume was expected to increase. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar production was good this year, which was beneficial to sugar prices. In the first quarter, the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, which was also beneficial to the supply side. However, the downward trend of US sugar limited the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price rebounded, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. In Shandong, the market shipment was slow, and merchants' purchases were cautious. The shipment speed in the wholesale market slowed down significantly. The rising temperature across the country and the listing of seasonal fruits reduced the demand for apples. The market's trading focus shifted to the output estimate of the new season. The western producing areas were affected by high temperature and strong winds during the flowering period, which might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality. However, the overall flower quantity was sufficient, and there were great differences in the output estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, rubber RU&WRBBR fell sharply, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber and butadiene rubber decreased. The supply of global natural rubber entered the increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad were fully tapped. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week, and some plants were under maintenance or running at reduced loads. The domestic tire operating rate declined slightly, the domestic market consumption was slow, the export market slowed down, and the tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 614,500 tons, the inventory in the bonded area decreased while the general trade inventory increased. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 14,400 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene decreased to 28,200 tons. It is recommended to be cautious with NR and wait and see with RU&BR [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices rose. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen was 5,320 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was 4,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.157 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. The current domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and the demand for pulp was still weak. The pulp import in April decreased month - on - month, and it was expected to continue to decline in May and June. The pulp valuation was low. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long lightly at low prices [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of radiata pine decreased continuously, and foreign merchants' willingness to produce increased. After the continuous decline of foreign merchants' quotes, domestic traders were more active in taking delivery, and the domestic arrival volume increased last week. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of imports decreased to about 60,000 cubic meters. The port log inventory continued to decrease, but the main varieties for inventory reduction were North American timber and spruce, while radiata pine continued to accumulate inventory. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs would remain low, which was beneficial to the supply side. However, the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the price rebound power was insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]