原油月报：IEA上调2025年原油需求增量预期-20250528

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1] - Predictions for global oil supply in 2025 by IEA, EIA, and OPEC show an increase compared to 2024, suggesting a recovery in production levels [2][40] - The average forecast for global oil inventory changes in 2026 is slightly positive, indicating a potential stabilization in supply-demand dynamics [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10,458.90, 10,412.30, and 10,372.13 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting increases from 2024 [2][40] - For Q2 2025, the predicted year-on-year supply increase is 125.60, 98.59, and 135.95 thousand barrels per day from the three agencies [2][40] Oil Demand - The global oil demand forecast for 2025 is 10,390.31, 10,371.79, and 10,499.91 million barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with year-on-year increases noted [2][40] - For Q2 2025, the demand is expected to rise by 79.56, 58.73, and 126.32 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] Oil Prices - As of May 26, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, and Russian oil prices are reported at 64.12, 61.53, and 61.37 USD per barrel, with varying percentage changes over the past month [3][9] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent and WTI down by 15.55% and 15.86% respectively, indicating a significant decline in oil prices [9][10] Oil Inventory - Global oil inventory changes for 2025 are forecasted at +68.59, +40.51, and -127.78 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average change of -6.23 thousand barrels per day [3][33] - The report highlights a more optimistic outlook from OPEC regarding global oil demand compared to other agencies [3][33] Related Companies - Key companies in the oil processing sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, China Petrochemical Corporation, and others [4]