Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Today, black commodity futures declined overall. With no increase in demand, steel mills are not actively reducing production due to slight profits. The contradiction between supply and demand may become prominent, increasing pressure on prices. The variable lies in whether new projects will start during the off - season, leading to an inverse - seasonal increase in demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures declined overall. The closing price of rebar was 2964 yuan/ton, down 0.77%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3100 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the closing price of iron ore was 698.5 yuan/ton; and coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Market Analysis - Demand Side: The recovery of real - estate sales lacks sustainability, and investment and new construction have continued to decline significantly, dragging down domestic steel demand. As of May 27, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.45%. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 60.48%, while that of housing construction projects remained flat at 50.8%. Heavy rainfall in the south may also affect demand [1]. - Supply Side: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long - process steel mills increased to 59.74%, a half - year high. However, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons, with the year - on - year increase narrowing to 2.87%. The profitability of electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. On May 27, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3292 yuan/ton, with an average profit of - 126 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 22 yuan/ton, which may dampen production enthusiasm [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron Ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Investors are advised to expect high - level consolidation in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1].
黑色产业数据每日监测-20250528
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-05-28 12:38