铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Silicon iron continues to cut production, with limited demand growth and potential cost decline, so its price is expected to stay low and fluctuate weakly. Silicon manganese was affected by South African policies on Thursday, but the policy implementation takes time. With weak demand and high inventory, the price increase is restricted. After the market digested the policy impact, the silicon manganese market is expected to have a narrow and weak consolidation in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery, supply - side changes, and manganese ore shipping performance [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.64% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 50.0%. For silicon manganese, the monthly price range forecast is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.91% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 86.0% [2] 3.2 Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short silicon iron and silicon manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of 6200 - 6250 for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 for silicon manganese [2] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy silicon iron and silicon manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of 5300 - 5400 for both silicon iron and silicon manganese [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Silicon iron: Continued production cuts, limited demand growth, and potential cost decline lead to a lack of upward momentum in valuation, with the price expected to stay low and fluctuate weakly [3] - Silicon manganese: Affected by South African policies, but the policy implementation takes time. Weak demand and high inventory restrict price increases. After the market digested the policy impact, it is expected to have a narrow and weak consolidation in the short term [3] 3.4利多解读 - Silicon Iron: High hot metal production supports demand; low - valued silicon iron may rebound; the weekly production rate of silicon iron enterprises is 30.42%, a 0.8% decrease from last week, and the weekly output is 8.89 tons, a 4.92% decrease [7] - Silicon Manganese: Strict government control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading; the total silicon manganese inventory is high but shows a de - stocking trend [7] 3.5利空解读 - Silicon Iron: Hot metal production starts to decline; high inventory suppresses prices; high port inventory of thermal coal and weak coal market may lead to a further decline in ferroalloy electricity costs [8][10] - Silicon Manganese: Long - term real - estate market downturn and doubts about steel terminal demand growth lead to weak silicon manganese demand; high factory inventory and high warehouse receipts increase the total inventory, and the oversupply situation restricts price increases; the weekly production rate of silicon manganese enterprises is 34.18%, a 0.58% increase from last week, and the weekly output is 16.52 tons, a 1.51% increase [8] 3.6 Daily Data - Silicon Iron: On May 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 148, with no daily change but a 68 increase week - on - week. The spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to May 21. The silicon iron warehouse receipts decreased by 20 daily and 2439 week - on - week [9] - Silicon Manganese: On May 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 284, a 2 increase daily and a 112 increase week - on - week. The spot prices in different regions also declined compared to May 21. The silicon manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 672 daily and 3250 week - on - week [9]