南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of the lithium carbonate market remains weak. However, as the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances and short - position profit - taking will increase, leading to potential sharp fluctuations in the recent market. The short - term oscillation range is between 58,000 and 63,000 [4]. - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no obvious growth in demand - side production scheduling. The supply - side output shows no significant improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction in the market is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually being transmitted to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 25.1% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 29.9% [2]. - Regarding the daily changes of lithium carbonate futures: the closing price of the main contract is 60,380, with a daily decrease of 540 and a daily decline rate of - 0.89%, and a year - on - year decrease of - 42.50%; the trading volume of the main contract is 388,140, with a daily decrease of 4,329 and a daily decline rate of - 1.10%, and a year - on - year increase of 238.09%; the open interest of the main contract is 283,607, with a daily decrease of 10,008 and a daily decline rate of - 3.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 66.32% [9]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the company's product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it can short lithium carbonate futures (LC2508) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2; sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 3; buy out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a strategy level of 2 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the company has a future production plan and there is a risk of rising production raw material prices, it can buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, with a strategy level of 1 - 3; sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options); buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a strategy level of 1 [2]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - Positive macro - policies may stimulate the growth of power demand by supporting enterprises in robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI [6]. - As the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt continue to decline, the probability of upstream ore mines and lithium salt plants suspending production for maintenance will increase [6]. - The easing of Sino - US competition leads to an expected "90 - day" rush for exports and a passive de - stocking expectation in the market [6]. - The open interest is at a high level, and short - position profit - taking may cause the market to rebound [6]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - The future production capacity expansion expectation of lithium ore remains high, and inventory suppresses ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate [5]. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are at high levels and still in an accumulation trend [7]. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have postponed the clearance of high - cost production capacity [7]. 3.4 Spot and Related Price Information - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,500, with a daily decrease of 500 and a daily decline rate of - 0.81%; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 59,900, with a daily decrease of 500 and a daily decline rate of - 0.83%; the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 63,970, with a daily decrease of 250 and a daily decline rate of - 0.39%; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide is 57,950, with a daily decrease of 250 and a daily decline rate of - 0.43%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars per kilogram, with no daily change [11]. - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan per ton, with no daily change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 2,470 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 250 and a daily increase rate of 11.26%; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price is - 3,579.04 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 265.12 and a daily decline rate of - 6.9% [21]. - The average price of lithium mica (2% - 2.5%) is 1,235 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 15 and a daily decline rate of - 1.2%; the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 680 dollars per ton, with a daily decrease of 6 and a daily decline rate of - 0.87%; the price of lithium spodumene 6% (fastmarkets quote) is 645 dollars per ton, with no daily change; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate 6% (from Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars per ton, with a daily decrease of 15 and a daily decline rate of - 2% [25]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipt Information - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 33,854, a decrease of 300 from yesterday. Among them, the warehouse receipts of Xiangyu Sichuan Shanghai decreased by 300, while those of other warehouses remained unchanged [28].