油料产业风险管理日报-20250528

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The external market continues to focus on the U.S. soybean planting situation, and the weather speculation season will arrive after June. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the prices of meal products. However, the bullish speculation on the weather market and the expectation of supply gaps due to the trade war cannot be falsified. Overall, the market is undervalued but waiting for a driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.9%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1785 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.106 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Trader Inventory Management: When protein inventory is high and there are concerns about falling meal prices, traders can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - Feed Mill Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - Oil Mill Inventory Management: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market focuses on U.S. soybean planting, and the weather speculation season is approaching in June. The domestic market is pressured by actual supply, but bullish expectations cannot be falsified, and the market is undervalued waiting for a driver [4]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - The basis on the spot side remains weak, and future spot pressure will be more reflected in the basis. The futures market is stronger than the spot market due to unfalsifiable bullish expectations [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 13 million tons in May, 11.5 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply is still abundant in the second and third quarters, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter purchases [7]. - After the end of the warrant registration month, the futures market rebounded slightly due to actual supply pressure. The monthly import volume of rapeseed vessels will be around 200,000 - 400,000 tons in the future [7]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices and price changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, such as soybean meal 01 at 3013 (-0.3%), soybean meal 05 at 2710 (-0.22%), etc. [8]. 3.7 CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1061.75 (unchanged), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1931 (up 0.21%) [11]. 3.8 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices, are provided, such as M01 - 05 at 303 (-3), RM01 - 05 at -7 (-1), etc. [12]. 3.9 Oilseed Import Cost and Crushing Profit - The import costs and profits of U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are provided, such as the import cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans (23%) at 4463.7908 (up 19.22), and the import profit of Brazilian soybeans at 238.8728 (up 11.8264) [13].