金信期货日刊-20250529

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 28, 2025, the rubber futures market tumbled, with the main natural rubber contract dropping 4.19% to 13,830 yuan/ton. The decline was due to increased supply expectations and weak demand. The report suggests not chasing short positions as the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices continued to adjust, with the CSI 1000 being strong in the morning and weakening at noon; the Hong Kong stock market opened higher and then oscillated lower. Technically, the index maintained a high - level weak oscillation pattern [6][7]. - The gold market has broken through a small platform, and the low point on May 15th can be considered the end of the adjustment. It is expected to reach the high point on May 9th. There is resistance at a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to buy rather than chasing the rise [9][10]. - For iron ore, due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments in May, there is a large supply surplus pressure. As domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, there is a high - valuation risk. Technically, it is recommended to adopt a bearish and oscillating view [13]. - For glass, demand growth depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introductions. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish outlook as the overall trend remains unchanged [16]. - For urea, with a domestic daily output of about 205,600 tons and an operating rate of about 87.23%, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and downstream players are less involved. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - Rubber Futures - On May 28, 2025, the natural rubber main contract fell 4.19% to 13,830 yuan/ton. Although short - term rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas affected supply and supported prices, after the rainy season, supply is expected to increase. The end of La Nina and expected ENSO neutrality in the Northern Hemisphere summer reduce the probability of extreme weather affecting production. On the demand side, the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires and high inventory in tire factories may lead to weaker开工 rates [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The A - share market's three major indices continued to adjust, and the Hong Kong stock market opened high and then fell. Technically, the index maintained a high - level weak oscillation pattern [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The gold market has broken through a small platform, and the low point on May 15th can be considered the end of the adjustment. It is expected to reach the high point on May 9th. There is resistance at a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to buy rather than chasing the rise [9][10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments led to a large supply surplus. As domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, there is a high - valuation risk. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, and the trend is bearish [13]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Demand growth depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introductions. Technically, it oscillated lower today, and the overall bearish trend remains unchanged [16]. Technical Analysis - Urea - The domestic urea daily output is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23%. Agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and downstream players are less involved. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [18].