银行股2025年半年度投资策略（上篇）：趋势的力量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that bank profitability is stabilizing and aligning more closely with the real economy, while exhibiting lower volatility compared to other sectors [3][4][28] - The trend of asset scarcity continues, with a shift in funding evaluation criteria from short-term profits to long-term stable earnings [5][30] - The report anticipates a continued recovery in bank stock valuations, with high-quality banks expected to see their price-to-book (PB) ratios exceed 1 [6] Summary by Sections Profitability Analysis - Regulatory policies are shifting towards a more sustainable support for the real economy, with a focus on the health of the banking system [3][14] - The real return on equity (ROE) for the 16 major listed banks is projected to be 7.9% in 2024, down from 26.4% in 2010, indicating a significant decline over the past 15 years [17][22] - The core business profitability of banks is expected to stabilize, with new return on assets (ROA) for corporate and retail banking showing signs of recovery [21][27] Volatility Assessment - The banking sector's profit growth has been more stable than that of growth stocks, with a 10-year average net profit growth rate of 4.5% and a low coefficient of variation of 78.6% [4][28][29] Market Dynamics - The ongoing asset scarcity is characterized by low-risk interest rates and narrow spreads between various safe assets and government bonds [5][31] - The risk appetite among investors is shifting towards stability, with bank stocks being underrepresented in portfolios, estimated at a shortfall of 230.9 billion [6][30] Investment Perspective - The report suggests that the low interest rate environment and asset scarcity will favor bank stocks, which are expected to benefit from increased insurance company investments in equities [39] - High dividend yields from bank stocks are attractive, with the four major banks offering a dividend yield of 4.29%, which is above historical averages [31][32] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the banking sector is likely to see a shift towards equity investments as dividends alone may not meet the needs of absolute return-focused funds [41]