快递2025年一季报综述：价格战进入深水区，行业盈利短期承压，市场预期降至低位

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with a significant increase in shipment volume of 21.6% in Q1 2025, while the average revenue per shipment continues to decline [4][13]. - Major players like Zhongtong and Yuantong are focusing on regaining market share, leading to a more aggressive pricing strategy across the industry [4][24]. - The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure due to the intensified price war, with a notable decline in net profit per shipment across various companies [6][34]. - The report suggests that the marginal returns from the "price for volume" strategy may weaken, as the demand from price-sensitive customers has been largely tapped out [7][44]. - Despite short-term challenges, the industry is viewed as being at a cyclical low, with potential for significant recovery once the price war eases [8][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Volume and Price Situation - The express delivery industry maintained a high shipment growth rate of 21.6% in Q1 2025, but the average revenue per shipment continued to decline, reflecting ongoing price competition [4][13]. - The price war has intensified, with Zhongtong stating that the competition has reached a "white-hot" stage, exacerbating industry challenges [4][13]. 2. Market Structure Changes - In Q1 2025, Shentong and Yunda increased their market shares by 0.5 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, while Zhongtong's market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points [24][26]. - The competitive strategies among major players have aligned towards increasing market share, further intensifying the price war [23][24]. 3. Performance Overview - The price war has led to an overall decline in net profit per shipment, with Zhongtong's net profit per shipment dropping to 0.26 yuan, while Yunda and Shentong reported significantly lower figures [6][39]. - Shentong achieved a 24.2% increase in net profit, showcasing effective cost control and optimization of its franchise system [6][34]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates diminishing marginal returns from the "price for volume" strategy, as the market for price-sensitive customers becomes saturated [7][44]. - The cost reductions seen in previous years are expected to be less pronounced in 2025 due to high capacity utilization, which will further pressure profitability [7][44]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is currently at a cyclical low, with short-term performance under pressure but potential for significant recovery as the price war subsides [8][50]. - The market's expectations for the express delivery sector are low, indicating a potential opportunity for investors once the competitive landscape stabilizes [8][51].