债市专题研究：低波动环境突显黄金“每调买机”价值

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock and bond markets' persistent low - volatility conditions highlight the value of gold as a "buy - on - dip" opportunity. Short - term trading should focus on odds, with high - selling and low - buying for band trading, while long - term allocation should emphasize probability, expecting gold prices to rise after short - term shocks and adjustments [1]. Summary by Directory 1 Low Volatility Environment Highlights the "Buy - on - Dip" Value of Gold - Since May 12, 2025, after the China - US joint statement, the main trading line of the financial market around trade frictions has ended. The domestic stock and bond markets show low trading sentiment and reduced volatility. The A - share market's trading volume has declined, and the daily amplitude of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has been within 2BP for many days [2][11]. - The lack of a macro trading mainline may be the main reason for the reduced volatility. In 2025, it is a typical macro trading year, but currently, the market may be in a transition period between old and new trading mainlines. Gold's value may be further highlighted due to its relatively higher volatility compared to stocks and bonds [2][12]. 2 Short - Term Trading Focuses on Odds, Long - Term Allocation Focuses on Probability Short - Term Trading - Tariff frictions drove the rise in gold prices, but the market has priced them relatively fully. In the short - term, with the easing of China - US trade frictions, the risk is controllable, and it's difficult for gold prices to break through upwards. Gold prices show a rise - oscillation pattern, and this round of adjustment may last until July, similar to previous adjustments [3][15][19]. - Trump's 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs ends on July 9. If tariff negotiations fail, the resurgence of trade risks may drive gold prices up. In the short - term, odds thinking should be adopted, buying at lows below $3150 per ounce and selling at highs above $3350 per ounce [3][19][20]. Long - Term Allocation - The global multi - polar pattern may be reconstructed, and geopolitical frictions are increasing. Trump's government pursues "America First" and isolationism, and European populism is rising, increasing geopolitical risks [22][23]. - The credit of the US dollar is collapsing. After the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US dollar's credit had cracks, and Trump's trade frictions accelerated its decline. The US dollar index has fallen, reflecting international capital's distrust of US dollar assets [23]. - Central banks' continuous gold purchases support the bullish view on gold. Since the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, central banks have increased gold purchases, and China's central bank restarted gold purchases in 2025 [28]. - Investors' long - term bullish sentiment on gold is strong. Since late April, gold prices have been oscillating, but the market remains bullish. The long - term probability of gold price increases is high, and a "buy - on - dip" strategy can be adopted [32].