Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts due to high economic uncertainty and inflation risks, leading to a stronger US dollar index [12][17][18]. - The market for various commodities and financial products shows different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others in a state of narrow - range oscillation [3][27][31]. - Different industries have different investment outlooks, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals [14][19][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for clearer impacts of Trump's tariff policies. The US International Trade Court blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices. Short - term gold prices may continue to fall, and it is recommended to reduce positions [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump mentioned the possibility of reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran in the next few weeks. The Fed is patient about interest rate adjustments due to economic uncertainties. The US dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [15][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 585 billion yuan. Insurance redemptions of bond funds had a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term and collect low - cost chips [20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, but H20 chip restrictions led to asset impairments and reduced revenue expectations. The Fed is worried about price increases. The US stock market is still in a state of oscillation due to concerns about government debt sustainability and tariff risks [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - From January to April, the total profit of state - owned enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The market continued a dull trend of narrow - range oscillation with shrinking trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate assets evenly [25][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - It is expected that the domestic soybean crushing volume in June will reach 9.805 million tons. Brazil's DDGS and peanut meal are allowed to be imported. Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable with a slight decline. It is expected that futures prices will oscillate, and the spot market will remain under pressure [29][31][32]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable. Although power plants are replenishing stocks before summer, the supply is also abundant. The coal price is expected to continue to decline after a short - term stabilization [33]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. The demand for iron ore decreased seasonally, and the price is expected to continue to decline with potential inventory accumulation in June [34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of high - fructose corn syrup increased, while the operating rate of corn starch decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports decreased, and the southern port's domestic corn inventory increased slightly. Corn prices are expected to rise in the future, but currently, the spot market is stagnant. Attention should be paid to feed mills' inventory - building and wheat's policy - based procurement in June [38][39]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. Brazil extended and expanded steel import quota measures. The CMI index showed that the domestic construction machinery market was in a transition from peak to off - peak. Steel prices are expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to be cautious in short - term unilateral trading and use a spot hedging strategy [41][43][44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atico Mining signed a 30 - year mining right for the El Roble copper/gold mine. KAZ Minerals' Q1 copper production decreased year - on - year. The Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar index may suppress copper prices. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47][49]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou started to resume production. The spot and long - term supply of alumina are insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][51]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased on May 28th. The decline in nickel prices may be related to rumors of increased Indonesian nickel ore quotas, concerns about cost reduction due to electricity price reforms, and weakening demand in the new energy vehicle market. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and bottom - fishing should be done with a light position [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Thailand stopped investment incentives for the photovoltaic industry. Polysilicon cash is in serious loss, and the inventory of some downstream silicon wafer factories is insufficient. The impact of leading enterprises' production cuts on the fundamentals is significant. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices and gradually take profits on positive spreads [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A North China organic silicon monomer enterprise plans to conduct maintenance. Supply pressure is increasing, while demand has no obvious improvement. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and pay attention to large enterprises' cash - flow risks [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - SQM withdrew from the lithium ore exploration project in Western Australia. The current dominant logic is the downward spiral of salt and ore prices. In the short term, the decline space is limited, and it is recommended to partially take profits or roll over previous short positions [60][61][61]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste batteries stabilized. The supply of lead is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, and demand is weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and consider long - term positive spreads [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of ether - post C4 in Shandong was stable. The supply of liquefied petroleum gas decreased due to refinery maintenance. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [65][66][67]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ will use 2025 oil production as the 2027 production benchmark. The oil price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the short term [68][69][70]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased. The supply is stable, and demand is good. The alumina market's impact on caustic soda is weakening, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [71]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable. The futures market was in a weak - range operation. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [72][75]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The futures market oscillated downward. It is expected that the PVC futures will oscillate [76]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in East China ports increased. The price of styrene decreased. It is recommended to be cautious about the far - month trend of pure benzene and styrene [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was stable, and the market transaction was average. The industry has high production, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to supply changes [80][81]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe was in a low - level oscillation. The supply is expected to be stable, and demand is weak. Short - term maintenance may support the price, but it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Jiangsu was stable. The futures and spot markets were weak. It is expected that the glass futures will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [83][84]. 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Vietnam may impose tariffs on e - commerce imports. The container freight rate index was affected by sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities during price corrections [85][86].
会议纪要强调美联储将保持耐心
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-05-29 00:39