镍、不锈钢：基本面与宏观整体偏空

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - situation of nickel and stainless steel are generally bearish [1] - The intraday price of Shanghai nickel dropped by 2.1%, breaking below the 120,000 mark, and the short - term cost support may fail [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.02% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,950 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; LME nickel 3M is 15,380 dollars/ton, with a 0.19% change [8] - The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,680 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [9] 2. Management Strategies Inventory Management - When there is a risk of inventory impairment due to falling product sales prices, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks, with a hedging ratio of 60% using the Shanghai nickel main contract and 50% by selling call options [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, and the hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan; also sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] 3. Market Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - There is an expectation of increased supply in the nickel ore market as the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines gradually weakens, and the price bottom is loosening - The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded. Some large stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia have announced production cuts, and the demand in the off - season is pessimistic - The price of the new - energy link has stabilized due to intermediate products, but the short - term impact is limited - The spot market at the current price level has relatively active trading [3] Bullish Factors - China and the US have reached a tariff agreement - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 [4] Bearish Factors - At the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore is gradually increasing - Stainless - steel inventories remain at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement - Multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations - The overall weakness of the new - energy link may drag down the industrial chain [7] 4. Inventory Situation - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons compared to the previous period - LME nickel inventory is 200,862 tons, an increase of 864 tons - Stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [10]