宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250529

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural commodity futures sector, including soymeal, palm oil, and soybean oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - Core Logic: As U.S. soybean sowing accelerates, U.S. soybean futures prices decline. Trade concerns ease, and weather factors may still drive up prices. In the domestic market, the supply improvement expectation is being realized, and the negative basis pattern of soymeal is hard to change in the short - term. After the linkage between domestic and foreign markets is restored, soymeal futures prices rebound. In the short - term, it is affected by the external market and runs weakly with oscillations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - Core Logic: The Southeast Asian market is in a game between increasing production and the ability to maintain strong exports. After a period of inactivity, short - term funds frequently enter and exit the market, causing obvious fluctuations in palm oil futures prices. It tries to rebound from the low level but fails to break through the oscillation range. In the short - term, its trend is affected by other oil varieties and runs weakly with oscillations [7]. Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail like the above two, but mentioned in overview) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - Core Logic Factors: U.S. tariff policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].