宝城期货动力煤早报-20250529

Group 1: Report's Core View - The reference view for thermal coal is to oscillate. The domestic thermal coal price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of May 22, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 613 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The supply and inventory pressure of thermal coal still exists, but the production and import volume in April decreased month-on-month, indicating that the supply-side pressure has not further increased. The rapid increase in port inventory in May has put great pressure on coal prices, and the high inventory situation has led to the continuous fermentation of the expectation of a lackluster peak season this summer, dragging down prices. As of May 22, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.105 million tons, significantly 6.458 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory once reached a historical high of 33 million tons within the month. There are three positive drivers in the current coal market: policy support in May, a decline in the cost-effectiveness of imported coal leading to a decrease in imports, and the upcoming peak season for thermal coal. However, the thermal coal market still maintains a pattern of loose supply, with port inventory at a high level in the same period in recent years and a strong expectation of a lackluster peak season. Under the psychology of "buying on the rise and not on the fall", the price of 5500K coal at ports is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 2: Time Cycle and Price Calculation Notes - The short - term is within one week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for varieties without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the current day's daytime closing price to calculate the increase or decrease [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly oscillating, and an increase of more than 1% is considered a rise. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating are only for intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term [3][4].