Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated May 29, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [2][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil: There are still risks in the origin, and it is oscillating to find the bottom [3] - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean system is weak, and it is oscillating within a range [3] - Soybean meal: The overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate weakly [3] - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is still oscillating weakly [3] - Corn: Oscillating strongly [3] - Sugar: The raw sugar has broken through the support level and declined [3] - Cotton: The demand has entered the off - season, and the cotton price lacks the upward momentum [3] - Eggs: Waiting for the verification of culling after the Dragon Boat Festival [3] - Hogs: Passive inventory accumulation has formed, and a trend reverse spread should be arranged [3] - Peanuts: Oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Palm oil futures: The daytime closing price was up 0.40%, and the night - time closing price was down 0.10%. The trading volume increased by 65,001 lots, and the open interest increased by 29,216 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 524 yuan/ton [5][6] - Soybean oil futures: The daytime closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton, down 0.36%, and the night - time closing price was 8,068 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The trading volume increased by 17,183 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,026 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,060 yuan/ton, with a basis of 348 yuan/ton [6] 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia is worried about being classified as a "standard risk" country by the EU under the new EUDR. The classification is based on old data, and Malaysia believes it should be "low - risk." This may lead to palm oil producers being excluded from the EU market [7][8] - Sarawak has produced 485 million tons of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB), an increase of 8.6% year - on - year. The crude palm oil (CPO) production increased by 3.7% to 91 million tons. The oil extraction rate has declined [9] - Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff will be $52 per ton, lower than last month [9] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - DCE soybean meal 2509: The daytime closing price was 2,961 yuan/ton, up 0.10%, and the night - time closing price was 2,963 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of soybean meal in the main producing areas was 9.1 million tons per day, and the inventory was 21.58 million tons per week [15] - DCE soybean 2507: The daytime closing price was 4,119 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, and the night - time closing price was 4,102 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [15] 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - On May 28, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to the accelerated spring sowing pace and slowed demand. As of Sunday, the US soybean planting was 76% complete [15][17] - Pakistan has lifted the ban on some US genetically modified soybeans, and the US has sold 225,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan, with delivery starting on September 1 [17] 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of C2507 was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, and the night - time closing price was 2,328 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The trading volume decreased by 65,607 lots, and the open interest decreased by 35,957 lots [19] - The daytime closing price of C2509 was 2,349 yuan/ton, up 0.21%, and the night - time closing price was 2,351 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume decreased by 5,237 lots, and the open interest increased by 8,978 lots [19] 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The northern corn collection price at ports is 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2,390 - 2,410 yuan/ton. The corn price in Northeast China is oscillating narrowly, and the price in North China is rising [20] 3.4 Sugar 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price was 16.91 cents per pound, down 0.34. The futures main contract price was 5,795 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot price was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [24] 3.4.2 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower year - on - year. The USDA expects the global sugar production to increase by 4.73% in the 25/26 season. Brazil's exports in April decreased by 18% year - on - year. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons [24] - CAOC expects China's sugar production to be 11.15 million tons in the 24/25 season and 11.2 million tons in the 25/26 season [25] 3.5 Cotton 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of CF2509 was 13,330 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the night - time closing price was 13,245 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The trading volume decreased by 99,405 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,073 lots [29] - The daytime closing price of CY2507 was 19,635 yuan/ton, up 0.33%, and the night - time closing price was 19,525 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The trading volume decreased by 1,999 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,045 lots [29] 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot trading has slightly improved, and the spinning mills' procurement is more active. The spot basis is still firm. The cotton yarn market trading atmosphere has weakened, and the downstream new orders are insufficient [30] - The ICE cotton decreased slightly yesterday, affected by the rising US dollar and the decline of other agricultural products [30] 3.6 Eggs 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of eggs 2507 was 2,882 yuan/500 kg, down 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 68,051 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8,957 lots [33] - The daytime closing price of eggs 2509 was 3,722 yuan/500 kg, down 0.37%. The trading volume decreased by 15,866 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,405 lots [33] 3.6.2 Macro and Industry News - Not provided in the report 3.7 Hogs 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - The spot price in Henan was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of hogs 2507 was 13,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [35] - The trading volume of hogs 2507 was 4,529 lots, up 73 lots, and the open interest was 23,724 lots, down 1,327 lots [35] 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Passive inventory accumulation has formed in May. The second - fattening group is worried about the policy restrictions, and the inventory accumulation has accelerated. A trend reverse spread should be arranged [37] 3.8 Peanuts 3.8.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of PK510 was 8,352 yuan/ton, up 0.60%. The trading volume decreased by 6,477 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,187 lots [38] - The daytime closing price of PK511 was 8,234 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The trading volume decreased by 5,239 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,222 lots [38] 3.8.2 Macro and Industry News - The spot price of peanuts in various regions is mostly rising. The supply of peanuts from farmers is limited, and the trading is relatively active. China has allowed the import of Brazilian corn distillers' grains and peanut meal [38][39][41]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250529
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-29 01:12