国债期货：股债双调整，行情驱动有限谨慎观望

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - On May 29, most treasury bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.04%, the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts down 0.01%, and the 10 - year main contract flat. The equity market adjusted throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The market lacks strong driving factors, and a cautious attitude is recommended [1] - The trend strength of treasury bond futures is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamentals Tracking] - On May 29, the treasury bond futures index was 0.48. The volume - price and fundamental factors were bullish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy were 0.05% in the past 20 days, - 0.58% in the past 60 days, - 0.02% in the past 120 days, and 1.26% in the past 240 days [1] - In the equity market, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index was down 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index was down 0.68%. Market hotspots were scattered, and the number of rising and falling stocks was roughly equal [1] - In the money market, on May 28, the overnight shibor was 1.4110%, down 4.1bp from the previous trading day; the 7 - day shibor was 1.5780%, down 2.0bp; the 14 - day shibor was 1.6690%, up 0.2bp; the 1 - month shibor was 1.6150%, up 0.1bp [2] - The trading volume of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market on May 28 was 2.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.90%. Overnight rates closed at 1.35%, down 10bp; 7 - day rates closed at 1.50%, down 20bp; 14 - day rates closed at 1.68%, up 3bp; 1 - month rates remained flat at 1.60% [4] - The yield curves of treasury bonds and credit bonds showed mixed trends. The 2Y - term treasury bond yield moved down 0.03BP to 1.47%; the 5Y - term moved up 0.50BP to 1.58%; the 10Y - term moved down 4.06BP to 1.68%; the 30Y - term moved up 0.50BP to 1.91%. Among credit bonds, the 6M - term yield of AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes remained at 1.75%, the 1Y - term moved up 1.00BP to 1.79%, the 3Y - term moved up 3.50BP to 1.80%, and the 5Y - term moved up 8.00BP to 2.07% [4] - In terms of the net long - position changes of different institutional types, on a daily basis, private funds decreased by 0.38%, foreign capital decreased by 0.9%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.75%. On a weekly basis, private funds decreased by 5.52%, foreign capital decreased by 4.93%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 5.27% [6] [Market Data] - The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as trading volume and open interest of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts on the previous trading day are provided. For example, the 2 - year TS2509 opened at 102.412, closed at 102.400, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 27,085 and an open interest of 106,440 [3] - The 2 - year active CTD bond was 250006.IB with an IRR of 1.96%; the 5 - year was 240020.IB with an IRR of 1.91%; the 10 - year was 220010.IB with an IRR of 1.68%; the 30 - year was 210014.IB with an IRR of 1.06%. Currently, R007 is about 1.6948% [3] [Macro and Industry News] - On May 28, the central bank conducted 215.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from before [8] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9]