格林大华期货早盘提示-20250529

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the global economy in the macro and finance sector [1] 2. Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with factors such as the rise of US manufacturing PMI, the progress of US - EU tariff negotiations, the increase in container prices, China's economic data, and the recovery of European manufacturing all contributing to this positive outlook [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Important Information - Asian life insurance's huge losses expose the systemic risk of dollar - asset maturity mismatch, and a capital shift from focusing on US assets to seeking alternatives has begun, with a "big retreat" of up to $7.5 trillion starting [1] - US National Economic Council Director Hasset said more trade agreements may be seen in the future, and tariffs on some countries may drop to 10% or lower [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the sixth consecutive cut since last year, and warned about the threat of US trade policy to the global economy [1] - The yield of 30 - year Japanese government bonds rose 10 basis points to 2.93%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose 6.5 basis points to 1.525% after weak demand in the 40 - year bond auction [1] - South Korean retailers' sales in April increased by 7% year - on - year due to strong demand for online food and grocery delivery services [1] - Goldman Sachs said tariffs will push the US core PCE inflation rate to rebound to 3.6% later this year, but it's a "one - time" price increase [1] - SpaceX's "Starship" ninth test flight ended in failure as the spacecraft disintegrated in the air due to cabin leakage [1] - Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance plans to hold high - level meetings with China and Brazil to promote the "Two - Ocean Railway" project [1] Global Economic Logic - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, reaching a three - month high [1] - The acceleration of US - EU tariff negotiations boosts market risk appetite [1] - The price of 40 - foot containers (FEU) on the Shanghai - US West Line on June 15 reached $9100, more than three times the average price in early May [1] - China cut the 1 - year deposit interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.95% [1] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year - on - year [1] - Germany's rearmament and the European Central Bank's interest rate cut promote the recovery of European manufacturing [1]