PTA：聚酯加大减产力度，多PX空PTA

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Neutral: Asphalt, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Urea, LPG [29][45][47][64][80] - Weakly Bearish: Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Methanol, PVC, Styrene, Soda Ash [13][17][33][38][51][55][85][65][69] - Bullish: Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [89] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical commodities. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as supply - demand dynamics, production costs, and international trade policies on commodity prices [5][7][9]. - For some commodities like PX, PTA, and MEG, the report suggests spread trading strategies based on the changes in polyester production and market supply - demand [5][9][11]. - For other commodities, it analyzes the market conditions from multiple aspects, including inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and price differentials [14][20][33]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Long PX and short PTA. Although the polyester production cut may put pressure on PX demand, cost support from rising oil prices and tight supply - demand keep the long - short strategy valid [4][5][9]. - PTA: Polyester production cut leads to the strategy of long PX and short PTA. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and its processing fee compression position should be held [5][9][10]. - MEG: Short MEG unilaterally and long PTA short MEG. The reduction in polyester production reduces MEG demand, and the increase in coal - based MEG production capacity may lead to supply growth [5][11][12]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as inventory changes and the decline in the butadiene market affect its price trend [13][14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a weak operation state. The decline in the butadiene price and the pessimistic market sentiment on the demand side lead to the weak performance of synthetic rubber [17][19]. Asphalt - It follows the crude oil to oscillate within a range. The changes in production capacity utilization, inventory, and shipment volume affect the asphalt market [20][29][32]. LLDPE - It is running weakly. The increase in new production capacity, weak demand, and falling costs put pressure on the LLDPE price [33][34][35]. PP - The price is slightly falling, and the trading volume is average. The weak performance of the PP futures and the lack of downstream orders lead to the weak market [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It is in an oscillating market. The downstream replenishment in May supports the market, but the sustainability of inventory accumulation is a key factor. The supply and cost also affect the market trend [41][42][43]. Pulp - It is oscillating. The changes in futures prices, spot prices, and inventory levels affect the pulp market [46][47][48]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The market demand is average, and the glass factory has a large inventory removal pressure [51][52][53]. Methanol - It is in a weak operation. The weak terminal demand, inventory accumulation, and the return of production capacity in June lead to the weak market [55][58][59]. Urea - It is oscillating. The weak domestic demand and the support from exports lead to the oscillating state. The inventory changes and export policies affect the price [61][62][64]. Styrene - It is oscillating in the short term. The downstream replenishment, high profit - induced supply return, and changes in port basis affect the styrene market [65][66][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is tepid, leading to the weak - stable market [69][70][71]. LPG - It is oscillating in the short term. The changes in production capacity utilization and market supply - demand affect the LPG market [73][75][80]. PVC - It is running weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export and domestic demand are not strong [85][86][88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a daily rebound and a large overnight jump. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [89]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is oscillating at a high level, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be held. The changes in freight rates and market sentiment affect the index [91][92].