生猪：被动累库形成，布局趋势反套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In mid - to late May, the volume - price performance indicates passive inventory accumulation. The second - round fattening group entered the market in advance at the end of the month due to concerns about policy restrictions, accelerating the inventory accumulation. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and its far - month spread deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. If the second - round fattening policy is fully implemented, it will drive slow destocking. Long - term, it is recommended to continuously lay out reverse spreads for 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1, with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,550 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 15,340 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year change of 0 [1]. - Futures Prices and Trading Volume: The prices of the生猪2507,生猪2509, and生猪2511 contracts are 13,260 yuan/ton, 13,560 yuan/ton, and 13,110 yuan/ton respectively. The year - on - year changes are 10, 0, and - 65 respectively. The trading volumes of the生猪2507,生猪2509, and生猪2511 contracts are 4,529 hands, 16,995 hands, and 6,653 hands respectively, with changes of 73, - 4231, and 1652 compared to the previous day. The open interests are 23,724 hands, 77,960 hands, and 36,425 hands respectively, with changes of - 1327, - 1307, and 567 compared to the previous day [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of the生猪2507,生猪2509, and生猪2511 contracts are 1,290 yuan/ton, 990 yuan/ton, and 1,440 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 10, 0, and 65 respectively. The 7 - 9 spread is - 300 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year change of 10 [1]. 3.2. Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2]. 3.3. Market Logic - Passive inventory accumulation occurred in mid - to late May. The second - round fattening group's early entry at the end of the month accelerated the inventory accumulation. The January contract's far - month spread deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread due to liquidity. If the second - round fattening policy is implemented, it will lead to slow destocking. Long - term reverse spread positions for 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 are recommended. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [3].