Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, with low prices and limited fundamental drivers, and the market is dominated by macro factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 4900 level [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, with the market fluctuating. In the medium - term, supply is relatively sufficient and demand growth is limited, so the 09 contract should be shorted at high levels, and the monthly spread is suitable for positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the 2500 level pressure [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with a significant decline in the three major rubber prices. The market lacks clear guidance, and the bearish sentiment of funds is rising [4]. - The urea market is in a pattern of stable supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support performance at 1775 - 1785 before the Dragon Boat Festival [6]. - The methanol market is in a state of relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for the 09 contract is 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The plastic market has a pattern of high - capacity, low - profit and weak demand. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350 [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC - Price Information: On May 28, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4758 yuan/ton (-35), the market price in Changzhou was 4650 yuan/ton (-50), the main basis was -108 yuan/ton (-15), the market price in Guangzhou was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the market price in Hangzhou was 4680 yuan/ton (-40) [2]. - Supply and Demand Situation: PVC inventory is still at a high level but slightly lower than the same period last year. In the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate drag, and exports are restricted. There are many new investment plans on the supply side, and the inventory is still high [2]. - Macro Factors: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% within 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% within 90 days. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Europe [2]. Caustic Soda - Price Information: On May 28, the closing price of the caustic soda main SH09 contract was 2456 yuan/ton (+7), the mainstream price in the Shandong market was 880 yuan/ton (0), and the converted - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - Supply and Demand Situation: In June, there are still many device overhauls, with good profits and high - level operation. There is a small amount of new device production expected, and the inventory is neutral. The demand of non - aluminum industries is affected by tariffs, and the alumina industry may resume production [3]. Rubber - Inventory Information: As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.74%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.38%. The Chinese natural rubber social inventory decreased by 2.5% [5]. - Production Capacity Utilization: As of May 22, 2025, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points [5]. - Raw Material and Product Prices: The price of Thai raw material glue was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.1 Thai baht/kg. The price of whole - milk latex was 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.84% [5]. Urea - Price and Supply Information: The urea 2509 contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76%. The average daily price in the Henan market was 1829 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The Chinese urea start - up load rate was 87.84%, and the daily average output was 20.36 tons [6]. - Demand and Inventory Information: The demand for rice and corn fertilizers has not been fully released. The production capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 37.57%, and the inventory is decreasing. The urea enterprise inventory is 66.8 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons from last week [6]. Methanol - Price and Supply Information: The methanol 2509 contract closed at 2206 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The spot price in Taicang was 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The methanol device capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week [8]. - Demand and Inventory Information: The methanol - to - olefins industry start - up rate is 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.51 percentage points. The traditional demand is in the off - season. The methanol sample enterprise inventory is 23.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons from last week, and the port inventory is 49.04 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons from last week [8]. Plastic - Price and Supply Information: On May 28, the plastic main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50%. The polyethylene production start - up rate was 77.95%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 59.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97% [9]. - Demand and Inventory Information: The domestic agricultural film start - up rate is 14.05%, a decrease of 2.63% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate is 49.19%, an increase of 0.49% from last week. The upstream production enterprise and trader inventory has decreased, and the polyethylene warehouse receipt quantity is 5259 lots [9].
能源化工日报-20250529
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-29 01:49