饲料养殖产业日报-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall short - term trend of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The long - term trend is also affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1][2][4] - For different products, there are corresponding trading strategies based on their market conditions Summary by Product 1. Pig - Short - term: On May 29, pig prices in various regions were stable. The supply pressure was released in mid - to - late May, and there may be reluctance to sell at the end of the month. The demand increased due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the increase was limited. The short - term pig price has support at the low level and the volatility intensifies [1] - Long - term: From May to September 2024, the supply increased. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year, and the supply pressure in the second quarter of 2025 was still large. The pig price still has a risk of decline under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large, and the forward price is under pressure [1] - Strategy: The futures price has support at the bottom, but is under pressure above. The 07 contract has a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13100; the 09 contract has a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13300 - 13400. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then go short [1] 2. Egg - Short - term: On May 29, egg prices in some regions were stable. With the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is relieved to some extent. However, the supply pressure is still large, and the egg price is under pressure [2] - Medium - term: The high number of chicks replenished from February to April 2025 corresponds to a large number of newly - laid hens from June to August 2025, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2] - Long - term: The enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of newly - laid hens in the fourth quarter may decrease month - on - month [2] - Strategy: Be cautious about shorting the 07 contract after June. The 08 and 09 contracts should be shorted on rebounds. The 10 contract can be considered for long positions at low prices [2] 3. Oil - Palm oil: On May 28, the Malaysian palm oil futures rose. From May 1 - 25, the export data improved, and the production increase slowed down. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected, but the long - term trend is still inventory accumulation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3800 - 4000 for the 08 contract. In China, the inventory recovery is expected to continue [4][5] - Soybean oil: On May 28, the US soybean oil futures fell. The macro - risk has weakened, but the uncertainty of US biodiesel policy still exists. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1080 for the 07 contract. In China, the soybean arrival volume is large from May to July, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [4][6] - Rapeseed oil: The old - crop inventory in Canada continues to decline, and the new - crop sowing is normal. The ICE rapeseed is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed [7] - Overall strategy: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. The spread expansion strategy of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean can be concerned in the long term [8] 4. Soybean Meal - Short - term: On May 28, the US soybean futures fell. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the soybean arrival volume increases, and the soybean meal price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to gradually return to its fundamental value and be strong [8] - Long - term: The import cost of US soybeans increases, and the supply is expected to be tight. The domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [8] - Strategy: The 09 contract should be operated in the range of [2860, 3000] in the short term, and go long on pullbacks after mid - to - early June [8] 5. Corn - Short - term: On May 28, the corn price in some regions was stable or slightly decreased. The supply increased, and the upward trend slowed down, but the price has support due to the reduction of grass - roots grain sources [9] - Long - term: The supply and demand are tightening marginally, but the price increase space is limited due to the supplement of substitutes [9] - Strategy: The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of various futures and spot products showed different changes on May 28 and May 29, including increases, decreases, and stability [10]