商品期货早班车-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Gold: The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged. Gold is recommended to be bought at an opportune time, and silver is advised to be shorted on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio at an appropriate time [1]. - Aluminum: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded, and inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals support the aluminum price, which is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Alumina: The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the supply pressure has caused the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy is still highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Zinc: The long - short forces are deadlocked, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance and consumption sustainability [3]. - Lead: The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption intensifies, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate within a small range. Interval operation is recommended [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The downward driving force is limited, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 8000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday supply changes [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The near - month supply - demand surplus has eased, but the surplus pattern remains. It is recommended to hold short positions or short the far - month contracts on rallies [3][4]. - Multi - Crystal Silicon: After the 06 - contract delivery month, consider shorting the 07 - contract on rebounds. When the 06 - 07 spread breaks through the previous high, consider closing long - spread positions [4]. - Rebar: It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the rebar 2510 contract [5]. - Iron Ore: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Coking Coal: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate, and the domestic soybean market will follow the international market in the medium term. Attention should be paid to trade policies and US soybean yields [7]. - Corn: The futures price is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [7]. - Sugar: The market outlook is bearish [7]. - Cotton: An interval - oscillation strategy is recommended [7]. - Palm Oil: It is in a seasonally weak stage, but the decline is not smooth. Attention should be paid to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Pigs: The futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward [7]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - LLDPE: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - PVC: It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4850 [9]. - PTA: Buy PX after a pull - back, and short the PTA processing margin on rallies [9]. - Rubber: It is recommended to close short positions in batches and wait and see, and consider a long - RU short - NR arbitrage [10]. - PP: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - MEG: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but be cautious when going long [10]. - Crude Oil: The core of trading depends on the US - Iran negotiation and the OPEC meeting. If OPEC continues to increase production and the US and Iran reach an agreement, the oil price may fall further [10]. - Styrene: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and in the medium term, short on rallies [10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: The international gold price denominated in London gold fell below $3300 per ounce [1]. - News: EU - US trade negotiations have optimistic sentiment, the "TACO" trading is popular, OPEC + will discuss production increase in July, and the Fed is more cautious about the economic outlook [1]. - Economic Data: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.236 million barrels in the week of May 23, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index in May was - 9 [1]. - Inventory Data: Domestic gold ETF had a small outflow, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.02 tons, and some silver inventories changed [1]. - Operation Suggestion: Buy gold at an opportune time, short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.72% to 20,185 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, and the aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded, and inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. It is expected to be volatile [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.89% to 2991 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants resumed production, and new production capacity was released, with a slight increase in operating capacity [2][3]. - Trading Strategy: The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the supply pressure has caused the futures price to fall. The Guinean mining policy is uncertain [3]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract decreased by 0.38% to 22,500 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Zinc mining resources are relatively abundant, and the supply is relatively loose. The apparent consumption shows resilience [3]. - Trading Strategy: The long - short forces are deadlocked, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract decreased by 0.62% to 16,700 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, the supply of primary lead is stable, and the lead consumption is weak [3]. - Trading Strategy: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a small range, and interval operation is recommended [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 07 contract closed at 7340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand is weak. The market is pessimistic about continuous inventory reduction [3]. - Operation Suggestion: The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 8000 yuan. Wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday supply [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 60,380 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply is in surplus, the production decreased by 3.23% week - on - week, the demand growth is lower than expected, and the inventory is high with a slight reduction [3]. - Trading Strategy: The near - month surplus has eased, but the surplus pattern remains. Hold short positions or short far - month contracts on rallies [3][4]. Multi - Crystal Silicon - Market Performance: The main 07 contract closed at 35,100 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply is relatively stable, the inventory has decreased, and the demand in the downstream is weak [4]. - Operation Suggestion: After the 06 - contract delivery month, consider shorting the 07 - contract on rebounds, and close long - spread positions when the spread breaks through the previous high [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2510 contract closed at 2957 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production increased slightly. The inventory reduction slowed down [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract closed at 699.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply from Australia increased, and that from Brazil decreased. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract closed at 765 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron - water production decreased slightly, the first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans fell overnight due to accelerated sowing [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply in South America is loose in the near term, and the US soybean sowing is going smoothly in the long term. The demand in South America is dominant in the short term, and the US soybean demand is seasonally weak [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans will fluctuate, and the domestic market will follow the international market in the medium term [7]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2507 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the deep - processing corn price fell [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand is tightening marginally, the substitution imports are expected to decrease, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5786 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [7]. - Fundamentals: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is affected by imports [7]. - Operation Strategy: The market outlook is bearish [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton price fell overnight, and the domestic cotton price fluctuated narrowly [7]. - Fundamentals: The cotton budding rate in the US is behind, and the domestic textile enterprise inventory has increased slightly [7]. - Operation Suggestion: Use an interval - oscillation strategy [7]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market continued to rebound, with both supply and demand increasing [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in the producing areas is seasonally increasing, and the export has improved [7]. - Trading Strategy: It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to production and policies [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2506 contract continued to decline, and the spot price rose [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Pigs - Market Performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, with the near - term strong and the far - term weak, and the spot price mostly fell [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the cost is low [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward [7]. Apples - Market Performance: The price remained at a high level with fluctuations [8]. - Fundamentals: Extreme weather affected apple fruiting, the inventory is low, and the market is worried about the new - season output [8]. - Operation Strategy: Wait and see [8]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, the basis weakened, and the import window was closed [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply is increasing, the import is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [9]. PVC - Market Performance: The V09 contract closed at 4704 yuan/ton, down 1.3%, and the trading was light [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to increase, the inventory reduction has slowed down, and the export demand has eased [9]. - Operation Suggestion: Close short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4850 [9]. PTA - Market Performance: The PX price is 836 US dollars per ton, and the PTA spot price is 4880 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply is at a neutral level, the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term, and the polyester industry has some changes [9]. - Trading Dimension: Buy PX after a pull - back, and short the PTA processing margin on rallies [9]. Rubber - Market Performance: The RU2509 contract fell by 4.36% to 13,805 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The raw material price is slightly loose, the spot buying sentiment is strong, and the inventory has changed [10]. - Trading Strategy: Close short positions in batches and wait and see, and consider a long - RU short - NR arbitrage [10]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, the basis was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply is increasing, the export window is open, and the downstream demand has different performances [10]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [10]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price is 4494 yuan/ton, and the basis is 144 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply is at a medium - low level, the inventory is at a medium - low level, and the polyester industry has some changes [10]. - Trading Dimension: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but be cautious when going long [10]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly [10]. - Fundamentals: OPEC did not adjust production in July, and the US - Iran situation affects the oil price [10]. - Trading Strategy: The core depends on the US - Iran negotiation and the OPEC meeting. If OPEC continues to increase production and the US and Iran reach an agreement, the oil price may fall further [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, the basis was strong [10]. - Fundamentals: The upstream and downstream inventories are expected to accumulate slightly, and the downstream demand is affected by the US - China tariff situation [10]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and in the medium term, short on rallies [10][11].