Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about the overall market [6]. - For different commodities, there are various investment suggestions, such as considering long positions in stock index futures, gold futures, and copper futures; being cautious about PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc.; and waiting for opportunities in some commodities like urea and cotton [9][11][57]. Summary by Commodity Categories Bonds and Stocks - Treasury Bonds: The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the Ministry of Finance announced local government bond issuance. It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [5][7]. - Stock Index Futures: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had small increases. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Base Metals - Copper: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated lower. The US International Court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to market sentiment, and it is considered to take long positions in Shanghai copper [56][57]. - Tin: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. With the resumption of production in some mines and the increase in production costs in some regions, it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is large, and a bearish and volatile view is taken [58]. - Nickel: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. Although the cost support is strong, the downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [59]. Energy - Crude Oil: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. There are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market, and it is suitable for short - term operations. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [23][26]. - Fuel Oil: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose first and then fell. The global trade demand is recovering, but the increase in inventories in some regions is negative for prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [27][29]. Chemicals - PVC: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [35][37]. - Urea: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The cost has decreased in the short term, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound later, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [38][40]. - PX: The previous trading day, the PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened slightly, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [41]. - PTA: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient, and interval operations are considered [42][43]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The previous trading day, soybean meal rose slightly, and soybean oil fell slightly. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, it is possible to pay attention to out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [60][62]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil closed up. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [63][64]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures fell. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high or low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback of rapeseed meal [65][67]. - Cotton: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly. The suspension of tariffs is beneficial to short - term exports. It is recommended to go long after the callback [68][72]. - Sugar: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell slightly. The global sugar production is expected to recover. It is recommended to conduct interval operations [73][77]. - Apple: The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The inventory in cold storage is lower than that of last year, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback [78][79]. - Live Pigs: The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. It is recommended to consider the positive spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [80][82]. - Eggs: The previous trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short after the rebound [83][84]. - Corn and Starch: The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is recommended to wait and see for corn starch [85][87]. - Logs: The previous trading day, the main log contract rose. The arrival of logs at ports has increased, and the market has no obvious driving force [88][89].
早间评论早间评论-20250529
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-05-29 01:56