安粮期货大豆、淀粉早报-20250529

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be a sideways consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be sideways with a bullish bias [2] - The short - term downward momentum of corn futures prices weakens, maintaining a weak sideways movement [3] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, and the overall defense line is set at the upper edge of the moving average system [4] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement, and short positions can be opened on rallies [5][6] - For steel, it is advisable to wait and see currently and wait for stabilization due to declining demand [7] - Coke and coking coal are in a low - level weak sideways movement due to ample supply [8] - The iron ore 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - The WTI main contract will mainly move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber is in a weak state with overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices will move weakly at a low level with a sideways trend due to a weak fundamental situation [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot price: Zhangjiagang Yijiang first - grade soybean oil is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market analysis: South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil in China may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] Soybean Meal - Spot price: 43% soybean meal prices vary by region, e.g., Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton [2] - Market analysis: Sino - US trade has a phased agreement but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose. Demand was underestimated, and inventory accumulation is slow [2] Corn - Spot price: Different regions have different prices, e.g., the average purchase price in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,193 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: The market has a loose expectation of long - term corn imports. The 5 - month USDA report is negative for US corn prices. In China, supply pressure eases, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] Copper - Spot price: Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,430 - 786,590 yuan, down 5 yuan [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff tensions are easing, and domestic policies are supportive. However, raw material issues persist, and the copper market is complex due to various factors [4] Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 62,000 yuan/ton (+250 yuan/ton) [5] - Market analysis: Ore prices have dropped, but lithium salt prices are falling faster. Supply is high, and demand is improving but insufficient. Inventory is decreasing overall. The 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement [5][6] Steel - Spot price: Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, and the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56% [7] - Market analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Cost and inventory show a complex situation, and the market is influenced by macro - policies and shows a supply - demand dual - strong pattern [7] Coke and Coking Coal - Spot price: Main coking coal (e.g., Mongolian 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is gradually accumulating, and profit is approaching the break - even point. They are in a low - level weak sideways movement [8] Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts iron ore index is 96.45 [9] - Market analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Global shipments are slightly down, port inventory has decreased, and domestic demand is complex. The 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement [9] Crude Oil - Market analysis: Supply increase expectations have faded, but demand growth is slowing. OPEC+ will increase production in June. The WTI main contract will move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] Rubber - Market analysis: Global supply is ample, and demand may be inhibited by US tariffs. It is in a weak state with supply exceeding demand [11][12] PVC - Spot price: East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [13] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. Futures prices are moving weakly at a low level [13] Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,406.25 yuan/ton, unchanged [14] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased due to planned maintenance, inventory has decreased slightly, demand is average, and the market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14]