6月下半月仍存涨价预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market still anticipates price increases in the second half of June. The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game of continued price - increase expectations. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually shift to "reality" - based trading. The 8 - month contract, being in the traditional peak season with relatively less capacity in July, still has price - increase expectations. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations for the 08 contract. The main contract is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of May 29, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 93,146 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 102,136 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1372.30, 1222.80, 1773.00, 1949.50, 1349.40, and 1526.00 respectively [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On May 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1317.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 3275.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4284.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1247.05 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1719.79 points [4][5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 25, 2025, 109 container ships had been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 873,100 TEU. Among them, 34 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 513,200 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [5]. - In June, the shipping capacity on the European route remained relatively high, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes increased significantly compared to the previous month. The monthly average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European route in June was about 280,000 TEU, and the capacity in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 was 292,400/267,500/301,800/275,000 TEU, an increase of over 20% compared to the same period last year. The monthly average weekly capacity in July was 261,000 TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 334,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 305,000 TEU in July [2]. 3.4 Supply Chain - No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only figure references such as global container ship capacity congestion ratio, global container ship congestion capacity, ship speeds of different tonnages, and the number of container ships passing through major canals [49][53][58]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only figure references such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - area consumer confidence index, and China's export volume to the EU [69][70][77].