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百济神州:2025 Q1首次实现季度GAAP净利润转正,泽布替尼放量稳定-20250529

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved its first quarterly GAAP net profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 1.117billion,ayearonyearincreaseof491.117 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49% [1][14]. - The company is expected to enter a significant period in 2025, with over 10 concept validation milestones anticipated [4]. - The sales of the key product, Zebutini, are expected to stabilize and grow throughout the year, despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline in Q1 2025 [3][15]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, GAAP operating profit was 11.1 million, marking the first positive result, while adjusted operating profit was 139million,a195139 million, a 195% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - The company reported a GAAP net profit of 1.27 million for the first time [1][14]. - The total revenue for Zebutini in Q1 2025 was 792million,a62792 million, a 62% increase year-on-year, with U.S. sales reaching 563 million, also showing significant growth [3][15]. Cost Management - R&D expenses in Q1 2025 were 482 million, with a R&D expense ratio of 43%, down 18 percentage points year-on-year [2][34]. - Sales and management expenses were 459 million, with a corresponding expense ratio of 41%, down 16 percentage points year-on-year [2][34]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3.7517billion,3.7517 billion, 4.5024 billion, and 5.4034billionfor2025,2026,and2027respectively,withnetprofitsexpectedtobe5.4034 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 703 million, 4.010billion,and4.010 billion, and 6.744 billion in the same years [6][11]. - The company anticipates a GAAP operating profit for the full year 2025, with a gross margin expected to be in the range of 80%-90% [12][13].