中辉期货：原油

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Expected to be volatile. OPEC+ has determined the 2027 production benchmark, and the market is waiting for the results of the meeting of 8 member countries on Saturday. The summer consumption peak is approaching, providing support for near - term prices, but the long - term supply increase may put pressure on prices. SC is expected to trade in the range of 445 - 465 yuan/barrel [1][4][5]. - LPG: Expected to be volatile. The pressure from warehouse receipts has been released, and the downstream start - up is expected to pick up, providing support for prices. However, the cost - end oil price is fluctuating weakly. PG is expected to trade in the range of 4080 - 4100 yuan/ton [1][7][8]. - L: Expected to be weak. The supply is abundant with new device production plans in the second quarter, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. Short - term downstream replenishment is only periodic. It is recommended to hold short positions. L is expected to trade in the range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton [1][10]. - PP: Expected to be weak. The commercial inventory is decreasing at the end of the month, but the enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year. A new production peak is coming from May to July, and the export is weak due to rising freight. It is recommended to hold short positions. PP is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 6900 yuan/ton [1][13]. - PVC: Expected to be weak. The calcium carbide price is stable after a decline, and the rainy season is coming, leading to a weakening demand. The cost is collapsing, and there are expectations of new device production. It is recommended to hold short positions. V is expected to trade in the range of 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton [1][16]. - PX: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. PX device maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, and the demand - side device maintenance is generally high. The inventory decreased in April but is still at a relatively high level. In May, the fundamentals continue to improve, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6540 - 6690 yuan/ton [1][18]. - PTA: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The PTA device maintenance volume is high, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester start - up is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving start - up is at a high level. PTA inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. TA is expected to trade in the range of 4630 - 4720 yuan/ton [1][20]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The device maintenance is high, and the arrival volume is low, reducing the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving is in a good stage. The inventory is decreasing overall. EG is expected to trade in the range of 4280 - 4450 yuan/ton [1][22][23]. - Glass: Expected to be volatile. The macro - environment is not favorable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The supply is increasing at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. FG is expected to trade in the range of 980 - 1030 yuan/ton [2][26]. - Soda Ash: Expected to be weak. The new production capacity is put into operation, the supply is abundant, the demand support is weak, and the cost center is moving down. The price is expected to continue to decline. SA is expected to trade in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][28]. - Caustic Soda: Expected to be weakly stable. The supply is increasing overall with regional differences, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The spot price is slowly rising. SA is expected to trade in the range of 2450 - 2500 yuan/ton [2][31]. - Methanol: It is recommended to go long with a light position at low levels. The supply - side pressure is returning as the maintenance devices resume production, but the demand has improved. The port is starting to accumulate inventory, but the futures has already priced in part of the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions and pay attention to light - long opportunities. MA is expected to trade in the range of 2170 - 2210 yuan/ton [2]. - Urea: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The supply pressure is increasing as some maintenance devices resume production, but the agricultural demand is expected to pick up, and the export growth rate was high from January to April. The cost is fluctuating narrowly. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. UR is expected to trade in the range of 1780 - 1820 yuan/ton [2]. - Asphalt: Expected to be volatile. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south", and the price is greatly affected by the cost - end oil price. BU is expected to trade in the range of 3495 - 3535 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Situation: Overnight international oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI rising 1.56%, Brent rising 1.18%, and SC falling 0.83%. The supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ continues its production - increase plan, and the demand growth rate is expected to be stable. The inventory data shows an increase in strategic and commercial crude oil reserves in the US [3][4]. - Strategy: In the long - term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s expansion cycle, the oil price is expected to trade in the range of 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the range of 445 - 465 yuan/barrel for SC [5]. LPG - Market Situation: On May 28, the PG main contract closed at 4090 yuan/ton, up 0.27% month - on - month. The warehouse receipt pressure has been released, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to increase. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating weakly [6][7]. - Strategy: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG valuation is high, so the long - term trend is expected to be weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and sell put options. PG is expected to trade in the range of 4080 - 4100 yuan/ton [8]. L - Market Situation: The supply is abundant with new device production plans in the second quarter, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened [10]. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton [1][11]. PP - Market Situation: The macro - policy sentiment has weakened, and the demand is weak. Although the inventory is decreasing at the end of the month, the enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and a new production peak is coming from May to July. The export is weak due to rising freight [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rebounds. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 6900 yuan/ton [14]. PVC - Market Situation: The calcium carbide price is stable after a decline, and the rainy season is coming, leading to a weakening demand. The cost is collapsing, and there are expectations of new device production. The basis has weakened, and the warehouse receipts have increased [16]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. PX - Market Situation: PX device maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, and the demand - side device maintenance is generally high. The inventory decreased in April but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread is high, and it is currently fluctuating with the cost [17][18]. - Strategy: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6540 - 6690 yuan/ton [18]. PTA - Market Situation: The PTA device maintenance volume is high, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester start - up is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving start - up is at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee has recovered [19][20]. - Strategy: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4630 - 4720 yuan/ton [20]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Market Situation: The device maintenance is high, and the arrival volume is low, reducing the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving is in a good stage. The inventory is decreasing overall [21][22]. - Strategy: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4280 - 4450 yuan/ton [23]. Glass - Market Situation: The macro - environment is not favorable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The supply is increasing at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high, especially in the upstream and mid - stream. The downstream mainly purchases on a just - in - time basis [25][26]. - Strategy: It is recommended to trade short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. The price is expected to trade in the range of 980 - 1030 yuan/ton [26]. Soda Ash - Market Situation: The new production capacity is put into operation, and although the supply has decreased due to enterprise maintenance, it is still in a state of oversupply. The terminal demand support is weak, and the inventory is at a high level [27][28]. - Strategy: The price is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with a light position in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term. SA is expected to trade in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [28]. Caustic Soda - Market Situation: The supply is increasing overall with regional differences. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The profit of some chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong has declined [30][31]. - Strategy: It is expected to be weakly stable, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 2450 - 2500 yuan/ton [31]. Methanol - Market Situation: The supply - side pressure is returning as the maintenance devices resume production, but the demand has improved. The port is starting to accumulate inventory, and the futures has already priced in part of the inventory accumulation expectation [2]. - Strategy: It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions and pay attention to light - long opportunities. MA is expected to trade in the range of 2170 - 2210 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - Market Situation: The supply pressure is increasing as some maintenance devices resume production, but the agricultural demand is expected to pick up, and the export growth rate was high from January to April. The cost is fluctuating narrowly [2]. - Strategy: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. UR is expected to trade in the range of 1780 - 1820 yuan/ton [2]. Asphalt - Market Situation: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south", and the price is greatly affected by the cost - end oil price [2]. - Strategy: It is expected to be volatile. BU is expected to trade in the range of 3495 - 3535 yuan/ton [2].